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Africa’s Early Stage Investor Summit Opens Nov 11

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Africa’s early stage investor community will convene on November 11th and 12th, 2018 for the 5th Africa Early Stage Investor Summit (#AESIS2018), hosted by Venture Capital for Africa (VC4A) and African Business Angel Network (ABAN).

This exclusive investor-only event unites key ecosystem stakeholders from across the continent and beyond to exchange best practices, learn from peers, and do deals. The Summit will kick off the Global Entrepreneurship Week in Cape Town and, for the second consecutive year, will be hosted at Workshop17 in the V&A Waterfront.

African founders and African investors operate in rapidly changing markets and are transforming the continent. In unlocking these opportunities, Africa-focused investors are developing unique approaches to investing.

The organizers have chosen “The African Way to Investing” as the theme for this year’s event. How do these pioneering investors operate and what is the “African way to investing”? How is the VC model being adapted to support innovation on the continent? How do African VCs structure funds, keep costs manageable in markets with limited liquidity and develop exit opportunities? What is being done to dramatically grow the number of local angel investors? What instruments allow diaspora investors to play an active role? This year’s Summit is the place where investors and industry leaders come together to debate these questions, share best practices and together set the roadmap for the future.

Programme
On Day 1, Sunday November 11th, the Summit offers its participants the Investing Academy, featuring a number of workshops and masterclasses for both aspiring and experienced investors. In the afternoon, participants are invited to join the official Summit Welcome Cocktails organized in partnership with Naspers.

On Day 2, Monday November 12th, the participants can expect a highly focused yet varied program consisting of keynotes, panels, workshops and masterclasses for investors by investors, rich networking experiences, exclusive co-investment opportunities, as well as the latest trends, insights and industry research. The day concludes with an exclusive investor networking dinner at the Radisson Red which is supported by Wesgro.

On Tuesday November 14th,  all participants are then invited to take part in the Cape Town and Stellebosch Innovation Tour.

Speakers headlining the 2018 Summit are renowned investors, including Peter Cowley, the newly elected President of European Business Angel Network (EBAN), Ido Sum of TL Com Capital, Khaled Ismail of HIMangel, Wale Ayeni of the IFC, Sam Paddock of GetSmarter, Keet van Zijl of Knife Capital, Quinton Soper of Proparco, Manuel Koser of Silvertree Internet Holdings, Marieme Diop of Orange Digital Ventures, Amee Pharboo of Accion, Jocelyn Cheng of the Global Innovation Fund, Amr El Abd of Egypt Ventures, Lauren Cochran of Blue Haven Initiative and Llew Claasen of Newtown Partners.
Other speakers include CEO’s and investment managers of Africa Tech Ventures, Greentech Capital Partners, 4Di Capital, GSMA Fund, African Development Bank, Village Capital, AngelHub Ventures, Partech, Adlevo Capital, Village Capital, Compass VC, Goodwell Investments, MEST, Lagos Angels Network, Jozi Angels, South African Business Angels Network, Ventures Platform, MBC Africa,  Innovation Edge, Compass Venture Capital, BidNetwork, IFV Venture Capital, and many many others.
The Summit will also encompass VC4A Venture Showcase – Series A, introducing selected and vetted by Africa’s leading VCs. These companies represent a new class of investment opportunity coming up across the African continent.

The selected ventures have strong revenues, are well positioned for regional and international expansion, and demonstrate important innovations that are disrupting industries like agriculture, healthcare, housing, transportation, and finance.

First Bank, Clickatell Drive Financial Inclusion via WhatsApp

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Clickatell promotes financial inclusion in Nigeria by enabling FirstBank to launch Chat Banking on WhatsApp, unlocking the opportunity for millions of new consumers to experience an improved way to initiate day-to-day secure banking activities and digital product purchases from within the chat application. 

First Bank of Nigeria, in partnership with Clickatell’s Transact division, has commercially launched their Chat Banking channel on WhatsApp. This capability enables FirstBank’s customers to manage their banking needs within their WhatsApp chat with the same efficiency as USSD.

Customers can add First Bank’s published WhatsApp phone number or a direct link access the First Bank’s “Verified” profile to begin a secure Chat Banking session.
Clickatell Transact’s bank grade platform allows for banks around the world to develop and seamlessly deliver their unique customer experiences consistently across multiple channels.

Clickatell Transact’s solutions allow banks to self-manage and instantly deploy changes to their offerings without the need for intensive professional services lowering turnaround times from weeks to minutes, reducing launch friction, development cycles and associated overheads.

This launch with First Bank of Nigeria marks the third large scale deployment by Clickatell in the African market in the past month.
Clickatell has pioneered the Chat Banking innovation through WhatsApp with a high emphasis on security to make WhatsApp a risk-free and convenient business engagement channel for customers. Multiple layers of encryption and authentication ensure a safe and hassle-free transactional experience.
First Bank of Nigeria will offer its’ customers a full suite of banking options that can be initiated through WhatsApp, including balance checks, transfers, payments in addition to a vast bouquet of digital products and services that can be purchased instantly. WhatsApp unlocks an opportunity for brands to offer their customers a more personal, intuitive and efficient way to engage with them on chat.
“Customers’ expectations are constantly changing and it’s our duty as a customer focused bank to ensure that our customers are provided with the means to initiate or carry out banking services through any channel they desire,”said Mr. Chuma Ezirim, Group Head, E-Business, First Bank of Nigeria Limited. “We are constantly seeking new ways and opportunities to meet customers at their preferred touch points and we understand our customers are actively engaged on WhatsApp.”
Clickatell’s Transact Division is committed to providing solutions to social and economic problems, through FinTech innovation. Clickatell’s goal is to provide consumers with efficiency, a pinnacle of customer experience and better value. In countries like Nigeria, where cash is currently the preferred method of transacting, Clickatell solutions resolves critical issues around ease of access, safety, security and consistent availability of essential products and services.
“We are very excited to be working with the team from First Bank of Nigeria who, in record time, implemented a complex user experience, soft launched and managed to improve on the already exceptional services that First Bank offers its customers. As a technology provider, Clickatell drives to delight both clients and their end-users through low code deployments and innovative upgrades. This rapid time to market and iteration capability of our offerings helps acquire new customers for our clients” – Jeppe Dorff, Managing Director of Clickatell’s Transact Division.
By providing consumers with what they want, when they want it and integrating solutions where they engage and transact, Clickatell innovation like Chat Banking on WhatsApp paves the way forward for consumers to gain confidence and trust in digital transactions.

Millions of consumers are getting on-boarded with each new launch of Clickatell powered chat banking across the world, especially in Africa.

Clickatell is diligently pursuing its goal of reaching all of Nigeria’s banked consumers. With its’ success in Nigeria, Clickatell has taken a definitive step in the right direction for greater financial inclusion, both in Africa and around the globe.

BudgIT Queries $10bn Rise in Nigeria’s Public Debt Stock

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Yemi Osinbajo
Yemi Osinbajo Acting President Federal Republic of Nigeria

BudgIT has chosen to express an opinion on the recent statement by the Vice President, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo that Nigeria’s public debt stock rose by $10 billion.

The organisation’s recent work on expanding public debt has armed her with facts to critically examine Nigeria’s debt stock profile.

We opine that the current rise of $10 billion in public debt stock does not tell the full story. To say the least, this can be misleading.  Arguments explaining that the entire Federation borrowed only N3 trillion in three years since the debt stock rose by $10 billion has been the trending narrative.

However, it is important to deconstruct the Federal Government (FG) debt into external and domestic debt to get a full understanding for purposes of accountability.

The total FG Debt Stock totals the sum of external debt and domestic debt.  The Debt Management Office figures showed that FG external debt alone grew from $7.34billion in June 2015 to $17.83billion in June 2018, that’s an additional $10.49billion in 3 years.

Domestic debt of FG as at June 2015 was N8.39trillion while it stood at N12.15trillion as at June 2018. That’s another increase of N3.76trillion in 3 years. At an exchange rate of N305/$, that’s $12billion. This means the total increase in external and domestic debt is $22billion.

It is public knowledge that the Naira was devalued in recent years, and this singular act shrunk and expanded a lot of indexes. Those who put forward $10billion are comparing the wrong values without adding the important information that exchange rates for the times are different. From our research, we have observed that this administration (FG alone) borrowed $22billion in three years but due to naira devaluation gains but total public debt stock (for the entire Federation) increased by $10billion, which makes current claims true.

However, it is important to state that it is true that public debt is now $73billion, grew by $10billion, because FG domestic debt in USD terms was $42.63billion in June 2015 and $39.75billion as at June 2018.

This does not mean that FG borrowed less domestic debt in 3 years. It only goes to show that the domestic debt of FGN grew from N8.39trillion to N12.15trillion from 2015 to 2018 respectively. Devaluing exchange rate from N196.95/$ to N305.7/$ made the domestic debt in 2018 relatively smaller in USD terms.

For clearer understanding, let’s use this analogy. It is like borrowing N1,000 in 2015 which is $5 at N200/$. If you borrow additional N500 at a new exchange rate of N300/$, you now owe N1,500 but you still owe an equivalent of $5.  It can then clearly be shown that the Naira equivalent of the total debt has risen from N12.1trillion to N22.4 trillion, a growth of N10.3trillion.

It is important to classify debt into two categories considering that external debt will be paid in USD or other currencies while domestic debt will be settled in Naira. This invariably has consequences for debt servicing costs in the near term.

It is hoped that this “marginal” increase in debt in USD terms does not unleash excessive borrowing by the Federation considering that public revenue in USD equivalent has also severely shrunk.

States’ domestic debt rose from N1.69 trillion in June 2015 to N3.477 trillion in June 2018. Adjusting this for USD also does not tell the full story. States debt costs are deducted in Naira equivalent at prevailing “official” rates.

However, devaluation provides adjusted gains especially for monies earned in USD such as oil & gas revenues but losses for those earned in Naira such as CIT & VAT, when converted to USD.

The devaluation of the Naira has impacted directly on the purchasing power of Nigerians, with income severely shrunk in Naira terms while those who export especially in non-oil sector have seen relative gains.

BudgIT believes that acquiring debt is not bad if put to judicious and profitable use for the citizenry but we request more transparency on self-liquidating capital projects that such borrowings are tied to. We believe Nigeria should expand total revenue to at least meet its recurrent costs, in line with the Fiscal Responsibility Act.

‘Funding- key to Unlocking Nigerian Hotel Pipeline’

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Radisson Blu Hotel, Lagos

Radisson Blu Hotel, Lagos

The rapid expansion in the number of hotel rooms, or keys as it’s known in the business, in Nigeria is an indication of a growing economy and favourable investment climate says the host of the West African Property Investment (WAPI) Summit & Expo, Kfir Rusin.

With more than 9,603 rooms across 57 hotels planned by the world’s leading hotel brands (Marriott, Radisson, AccorHotels), the country has many developers, investors and operators queuing up to strike deals across the country.

Current Market 
Speaking ahead of the WAPI Summit on 15 and 16 November taking place in Lagos, Trevor Ward the managing director of W Hospitality Group, says its Nigeria’s obvious scale and increasing economic sophistication that is fuelling expansion.
“Nigeria has by far the largest pipeline in West Africa, with Lagos and Abuja leading the charge. Adding that, “As a megacity, Lagos’ economic diversification, improving infrastructure of an international airport and deep-sea ports are all factors driving hotel growth.”
Despite this transaction-heavy and deal-making environment over the past few years, the challenge according to Ward is transforming these deals into real rooms, which cater across a broad economic demographic from affordable to high end.

Hotel Pipeline
“The reality is that only 4,000 of these hotel rooms are under construction,” says Ward. The paradox is that while deals have been signed between operators and developers, the funding environment remains compressed and the biggest challenge to overcome. This is despite the presence of global operators like Hilton, Marriott, and the Radisson rapidly expanding their footprint, but primarily focused on the top end of the market.
Says Ward, “There is no shortage of projects and developers, it is the finance that is in short supply. It is inconceivable that all the projects in the pipeline could be funded – if they were, and were built, there would be chronic oversupply.”
According to Ward, current demand is concentrated in the business and Meetings Incentives Conferences and Exhibitions (MICE) sectors, but the biggest opportunity is the economy or mid-scale markets. However, despite the potential offered by the economy or mid-scale market, international brands are focussed on the high end of the market with smaller brands like South Africa’s Peermont, Southern Sun, City Lodge are “making waves”.

Serviced Apartments
In such an environment, one emerging segment of the hospitality industry poised to break out is serviced apartments.
As Ward explains, “It’s (serviced apartments) coming, but it is slow, even though every major city in Africa has demand for the product.”
One industry thought leader and serviced apartment pioneer intimately familiar with this emerging hospitality class is Abi Adisa, the Chief executive officerand Co-Founder of Amara Suites. As one of Lagos’ first serviced apartment providers, he has measured a marked increase in business confidence post-recession and in light of a $70+ oil price.

Oil & Gas Impact
“We see Oil and Gas service companies returning to Lagos. A constant has been the Fast-Moving Consumer Goods companies focused on the increasing size of the middle class.”
And while the product is relatively new and untested in the West Africa market says Ward with just a handful of operations, Adisa believes serviced apartments are perfect for Africa’s fast-growing economies and urban future.
“Serviced apartments are ideally suited for African markets. Significant business traffic headed to Africa is for extended stays, and it’s not easy to get here. Folks also tend to stay longer to close on deals or execute projects and we are more flexible and cost-effective than hotels.”
Despite Adisa’s bullish optimism, the sector is not immune to economic pressures and Nigeria’s upcoming electoral period, which he says will result in a softening of the market and then a spike in demand.
“Medium-term, as West Africa becomes a focus for international businesses there is going to be a significant increase in demand, and especially the demand for branded serviced apartments with a multi-city, multi-country reach.”

Airbnb 
In such an unfolding environment, tech advances such as Airbnb can grow the business and highlights the flexibility which branded serviced apartments have over their competitors.
As Adisa says: “Airbnb’s presence has increased the credibility of the product as an option for many users.”  Adding that, “We definitely do less education about what the serviced apartment product is these days. Corporates, diaspora and locals are increasingly requesting for the product. Any hesitation at the moment in uptake due to the limited brand presence in the market compared to availability of global hotel brands in the region.”
The limited availability is something Adisa believes will soon change as more investors look to invest in line with global trends and greater profitability in serviced apartments.
“It’s only matter of time before we see dedicated investments in the space especially given the interest in real estate in general and the higher yields branded serviced apartment properties generate. It also helps that serviced apartments are now mainstream real estate investments and no longer seen as a niche in the West.”
As Rusin concludes: “The opportunity in Nigeria for hotels is significant, but funding has remained challenging. This year, our hotel sessions will feature many international operators like the Radisson and Hilton together with industry experts such as Trevor Ward, JLL’s Xander Nijnens and innovators like Abi Adisa. As the region’s largest and most concentrated gathering of local and regional real estate developers and investors, we believe that this year’s WAPI Summit will provide the platform for industry stakeholders to unlock the country’s hotel pipeline.”

Nigeria, Ethiopia, Kenya Lead 2017 FDI Flow in Africa

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South Africa shares the title of largest African FDI hub with Morocco; Southern, West, East and North Africa all receive more or less equal FDI (measured in project numbers); The USA remains the single biggest country investing in Africa, while Western Europe is by far the biggest regional investor.
According to EY’s latest Africa Attractiveness report, FDI was up across the continent last year, although South Africa experienced a fall in project numbers, on the back of continued weak domestic growth.
The EY 2018 report, ‘Turning Tides’, provides an analysis of FDI investment into Africa over the past ten years.

The 2017 data shows that Africa attracted 718 FDI projects which is up 6% from the previous year. This was in line with a recovery in the continent’s economic growth, following a difficult preceding year.
The higher project numbers were driven by interest in ‘next generation’ sectors, namely manufacturing, infrastructure and power generation. Despite the rise in FDI, project numbers remain below the 10-year average of 784 projects (per annum).

The report also highlights the countries with the strongest FDI gains, with Ethiopia, Kenya and Zimbabwe experiencing a major uptick in FDI during the 2017 year. By contrast, South Africa, Egypt, Mozambique and Cote d’Ivoire experienced declines in FDI projects in the same year.

Ajen Sita, EY Africa CEO, says “2017 was in many respects a key year for the continent. We saw multiple changes in leadership across a number of countries, including South Africa, Zimbabwe and Angola. In addition, Kenya’s election was drawn out which created uncertainty at the time. Changes in leadership have in turn led to a renewed urgency to implement fresh policies as new administrations move to address slow economic growth.”    

Emerging market investment into Africa slows
2017 saw a noticeable decline in emerging market investment flows into Africa. This is a major turnaround from the previous year when Asia-Pacific investors strongly increased inbound investments. Last year, investments from this region fell 16% while intra-African FDI also fell by 14%.

The weaker intra-African flows were largely driven by a weaker appetite by both Moroccan and Kenyan investors into neighbouring countries. South Africa’s outward investment project numbers held steady as weak domestic growth saw companies continue the search for external growth opportunities across the continent.

North American (primarily the USA), and Western European FDI flows to the continent remain strong

After the USA, which remains the single largest country investing into Africa, three of the remaining top five investors are European, namely the UK, France and Germany. Of the ten largest investing countries in Africa, six are Western European.

FDI is more evenly allocated across the regions, as South Africa’s lead narrows

The report found that South Africa, Morocco, Kenya, Nigeria and Ethiopia were the dominant anchor economies within their respective regions, collectively accounting for 40% of the continent’s total FDI projects.

Overall these four major sub-regions each attract similar FDI when measured by project numbers. For the first time ever, East Africa became the single largest beneficiary of FDI with 197 projects (27% of total projects). Southern Africa, by contrast, fared lowest of the four major regions, at 162 projects (23%).

Whilst South Africa remains the continent’s leading FDI destination when measured by project numbers, for the first time ever the country’s lead is under threat with Morocco increasing its FDI projects by a sizeable 19% to share the top spot with South Africa.

“Over time and as Africa’s growth accelerates, we anticipate that South Africa’s share of inbound FDI will continue to decline, relative to the rest of the continent. This will be driven by sustained strong growth, particularly in the Eastern-hub economies, and revived growth in the West hub. It illustrates the need for South Africa to ensure its leading economic role across the continent is sustained”, says Sita.

Next steps to increasing Africa’s FDI
”There are major opportunities that the continent can benefit from after the recent leadership changes we have witnessed. These opportunities require emboldened leadership to drive renewed policy reforms and implement new initiatives which encourage inbound investment flows.

There are some outstanding examples of how this has already worked in some countries, not least Rwanda, which is able to attract FDI well ahead of other economies of similar size, and indeed, ahead of much larger economies.

By focusing on improving public sector efficiencies and finances, minimizing bureaucratic processes and partnering with the private sector on major projects, more countries can stimulate much needed FDI. In addition, they should continue to focus attention on increasing their scores on the ease of doing business and global competitiveness rankings”, Sita concludes.

SYNLAB, Others Provide Free Medicals to Indigent Nigerians

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Synlab, formerly PathCare Laboratories, in partnership with Classic FM and more than 20 other medical and non-medical care providers in Nigeria, came together for the 2018 Doctors On Air Medical Mission program which took place at the Bariga LCDA in Lagos State on Saturday, 13 October.

The residents were checked, tested, treated and where necessary, referred for further medical attention, all for free.

Doctors on Air is a weekly health program focused on preventive healthcare, it airs every Wednesday at 8am on Classic FM and 8.40am on Naija FM. One of the important tenets of DOA is to encourage the populace to Know their Numbers, by having routine check ups to keep healthy.

Whilst most people can go to SYNLAB to have these wellness checks qualitatively done, there are some people who cannot afford it. The Chief Host, Dr Pamela Ajayi, emphasised the importance of knowing your numbers through the weekly program by creating awareness around diseases, prevention and treatment.

The annual Medical Mission is designed to make medical services accessible to communities who cannot ordinarily afford private healthcare services.

The mission was set up initially to provide these services but has expanded to provide qualitative services offered by the specialist consultants who come on the program, for example the ophthalmologists provided free glasses and used latest technology for glaucoma checks, cardiologists used specialised equipment for the heart screening such as ECGs and echocardiogram, other screening done were breast, cervical and prostate cancer. Deworming for adults and children was done, along with special dental care and health talks on various topics. Doctors on Air is sponsored by SYNLAB.

It is estimated that over 10,000 Nigerians have benefited from the annual Doctors on Air Medical Mission over the past 7 years. Among the beneficiaries of the 2018 event were children, teenagers, adults and the elderly including Mama Misirat Bello and Mama Lambo Rafatu, both in their 80s.

They were full of praise for the program which offered them high quality healthcare with referral for further care afterwards, all free of charge. Mrs. Abosede Amos whose son, Daniel Amos, was examined and treated for eye defects was one happy mother who commended and praised SYNLAB and its partners for the laudable program.

The Chairman of the Bariga Local Community Development Area (LCDA), Bar Kolade Alabi, addressed members of the community at the venue encouraging them to make the most of the opportunity that the program presented.

“We had promised that if elected, we would focus on programs that are mass inclined and help the individuals in the community live better lives.”

SYNLAB and the community of Bariga LCDA took turns to acknowledge and appreciate the support and contributions  of the key sponsors of the 2018  Doctors-On-Air medical mission – Classic FM, Naija FM, Bridge Clinic, Leadway Assurance, Chike Okoli Foundation, The Eye Doctors Clinic, SKKY Dental Clinic, Paelon Memorial Hospital, Lakeshore Cancer Center, Optimal Cancer Center, Nigerian Association of Dermatologist, Medical Women’s Association of Nigeria (MWAN), Lagos State Blood Transfusion, Smile 360 Dental Services, Health Plus, Reals Pharmaceuticals, Dara Foundation, Renaissance Medical Center, Medplus Healthcare, Ultimate Eye Clinic, Metro Eyes Nigeria, Sight City, Men’s Clinic, Euracare Medical Center, Choice Dental Clinic, May and Baker, Mopheth Pharmaceuticals, Zolon Healthcare, Emzor Pharmaceuticals, JNC International, Maryland Rotary Club, Bariga LCDA, MTV Shuga in partnership with the Society for Family Health and Oceanic Health.

African Leaders Seek World Bank Support on Power

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Speaking at the World Bank meeting in Bali this month, Jim Yong Kim, the World Bank President, said that African leaders approached him and said that they need more support to provide base-load power in their countries.
He said that these African leaders are telling him it is wrong for institutions like the World Bank to tell them they cannot use fossil fuels for base-load electricity.
Speaking in Bali, Kim said that leaders across the developing world are telling him: “You’ve come to us in Africa who have put almost none of the carbon in the air and you can tell us we can’t have base-load electricity. You’re outraged by climate change, we have almost no responsibility for putting the carbon in the air and yet you’re telling us we can’t develop and have base-load energy because we can’t use a single drop of fossil fuel for our own energy needs. And I can tell you, when I hear that from our leaders, from people in industry, in places like Africa, it’s compelling to me.”
An estimated 1.1 billion people – 14% of the global population – do not have access to electricity according to the International Energy Agency. The World Bank has announced it will not fund upstream oil and gas projects from 2019 onwards, which follows a similar ban on coal financing.
Kim added at the Bali meeting: “We feel that you have to listen to the social justice arguments from people from poor countries who have not put any of the carbon in the air and want to have base-load.”
It was reported in May by Bloomberg that climate talks organised by the United Nations ended with “developing countries demanding more clarity from their richer counterparts on when a promised package of $100 billion in finance will materialise.” The piece said that “developing nations want more detail on what money is coming before signing up to the Paris rules.”
In late 2017, Standard and Poor’s released a report questioning where $100 billion would come from, citing a need for many countries to increase budgets and debt burdens to finance their pledges
The report by Standard and Poor’s said: “In our view, it is very unlikely that governments would be willing, or able, to risk deteriorating their creditworthiness by stretching their budgets and debt burdens to fund the implementation costs.”

IATA Forecasts 8.2bn Air Passengers by 2037

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The International Air Transport Association (IATA) revealed that present trends in air transport suggest passenger numbers could double to 8.2 billion in 2037.

The latest update to IATA’s 20-Year Air Passenger Forecast, shows that an increasing shift Eastwards in the center of gravity of the industry is behind the continued strong growth. Over the next two decades, the forecast anticipates a 3.5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), leading to a doubling in passenger numbers from today’s levels.

The Association warned, however, that growth prospects for air transport, and the economic benefits driven by aviation, could be curtailed if protectionist measures are implemented by governments.

“Aviation is growing, and that is generating huge benefits for the world. A doubling of air passengers in the next 20 years could support 100 million jobs globally. There are two important things that stand out about this year’s forecast. Firstly, we are seeing a geographical reshuffling of world air traffic to the East. And secondly, we foresee a significant negative impact on the growth and benefits of aviation if tough and restrictive protectionist measures are implemented,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.

Eastward shift in aviation’s center of gravity continues

The Asia-Pacific region will drive the biggest growth with more than half the total number of new passengers over the next 20 years coming from these markets. Growth in this market is being driven by a combination of continued robust economic growth, improvements in household incomes and favorable population and demographic profiles.

  • China will displace the United States as the world’s largest aviation market (defined as traffic to, from and within the country) in the mid-2020s. The rebalancing of China’s economy towards consumption will support strong passenger demand over the long term.
  • India will take 3rd place after the US, surpassing the UK around 2024.
  • Indonesia is forecast to be a standout performer—climbing from the world’s 10th largest aviation market in 2017 to the 4th largest by 2030.
  • Thailand is expected to enter the top 10 markets in 2030, replacing Italy which drops out of the ranking.

 

Globalisation Reversed or Liberalisation Increased?

The 3.5% CAGR to 2037 assumes an unchanged policy framework over that period. Policy shifts, however, are likely over time. Should protectionism continue to expand in a “reverse globalization” scenario, aviation would continue to grow, but at a slower pace and deliver fewer economic and social benefits. Under a liberalised environment connectivity would generate significantly more jobs and GDP growth.

“Global prosperity depends on air connectivity. Aviation is sensitive to policies that either support or undermine growth. And these seem to be pointing in the wrong direction. Dampening demand for air connectivity risks high quality jobs, and economic activity dependent on global mobility. This forecast is a cautionary warning to governments. First, the industry will grow but they must clear the infrastructure bottlenecks to bring that growth to their home markets. And secondly, governments must understand that globalization has made our world more socially and economically prosperous. Inhibiting globalization with protectionism will see opportunities lost,” said de Juniac.

Scenario CAGR      Total Pax in 2037

Origin-Destination (O-D) passengers

Jobs Supported in 2037 GDP Supported in 2037 (2016 prices)
Reverse Globalization 2.4% 5.7 billion 90 million $4.6 trillion
Constant Policy 3.5% 7.0 billion 100 million $5.5 trillion
Maximum Liberalization  5.5% 10.3 billion 119 million $7.6 trillion

Source: IATA/Tourism Economics & Oxford Economics

Infrastructure and sustainability

No matter which growth scenario comes to pass, aviation faces an infrastructure crisis. Governments must work closely with the industry, to be more ambitious in developing efficient infrastructure, fit for purpose, and offering value for money.

“The world stands to benefit greatly from better connectivity. However, at this rate, airports and air traffic control will not be able to handle demand. Governments and infrastructure operators must strategically plan for the future. Decisions made now will have an impact on the value created by aviation for their regions,” said de Juniac.

The increased demand to fly creates a responsibility to expand in a sustainable manner. The aviation industry remains committed to its goals of carbon-neutral growth from 2020 onwards and cutting CO2 emissions to half 2005 levels by 2050. “Commercial aviation is one of the only global industries to take on such comprehensive environmental targets. With mandatory emissions reporting beginning on 1 January 2019 under the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), this will help rally the industry to invest in more fuel efficient aircraft and sustainable aviation fuels,” said de Juniac.

Key facts
Fastest growing aviation markets in terms of annual additional O-D passengers from 2017 to 2037 (constant policies scenario):

  • China: 1 billion new passengers for a total of 1.6 billion
  • US: 481 million new passengers for a total of 1.3 billion
  • India: 414 million new passengers for a total of 572 million
  • Indonesia: 282 million new passengers for a total of 411 million
  • Thailand: 116 million new passengers for a total of 214 million

Regional growth (‘constant policies’ scenario) in 2037

  • Routes to, from and within Asia-Pacific will see an extra 2.35 billion annual passengers by 2037, for a total market size of 3.9 billion passengers. Its CAGR of 4.8% is the highest, followed by Africa and the Middle East.
  • The North American region will grow by a CAGR of 2.4% annually and in 2037 will carry a total of 1.4 billion passengers, an additional 527 million passengers.
  • Europe will grow at a CAGR of 2.0%, and will see an additional 611 million passengers. The total market will be 1.9 billion passengers.
  • Latin American markets will grow by a CAGR of 3.6%, serving a total of 731 million passengers, an additional 371 million passengers annually compared to today.
  • The Middle East will grow strongly with a CAGR of 4.4% and will see an extra 290 million passengers on routes to, from and within the region by 2037. The total market size will be 501 million

Africa will grow by a CAGR of 4.6%. By 2037, it will see an extra 199 million passengers for a total market of 334 million.

Coscharis Motors Unveils new Ford EcoSport at Abuja Motor Fair

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Coscharis Motors, exclusive distributor for Ford in Nigeria, unveiled the new EcoSport compact sports utility vehicle (SUV) at the Abuja International Motor Fair.

“We are thrilled to introduce the new Ford EcoSport to the Nigerian market,” says Abiona Babarinde, General Manager, Marketing and Corporate Communications at Coscharis Motors. “The vehicle comes with more advanced features, more refined styling, and more sophisticated technologies.”

“The EcoSport is a popular model in Nigeria,” says Babarinde. “And the new EcoSport offers customers even more style, comfort, capability, and choice – blending rugged SUV functionality with city car practicality – making it more appealing and competitive than ever.”

  • Powerful and efficient

The new EcoSport is powered by Ford’s proven range of 1.5-litre engines, linked to front-wheel drive. The 1.5 TiVCT petrol unit produces 90kW (123PS) of power matched to a peak torque output of 151Nm. It is available with a five-speed manual or six-speed automatic transmission on the EcoSport Ambiente, or in automatic guise on the Trend and Titanium.

  • Rugged and refined styling

The new EcoSport features bold, dynamic Ford SUV styling. A sculpted bonnet with a central bulge delivers a cleaner front-end appearance. Angular fog light housings complete a front three-quarter profile that was inspired by the straps of a rucksack and designed to reflect an adventurous character.

EcoSport’s rear bumper and tail light designs also are revised to deliver a cleaner, more sculpted appearance. Customers can choose from seven bold exterior colours, including Lightning Blue and Race Red.

EcoSport now also delivers a new level of interior refinement with easier-to-use controls and soft-touch materials, and a new centre console ergonomically designed for easy operation, featuring fewer buttons. New seats designs are optimised for greater front and rear occupant comfort, and deliver a more upscale feel, including partial leather on the Titanium model.

The interior features a host of smart stowage solutions, including an under-seat storage drawer located beneath the front passenger seat, along with a spacious rear luggage compartment with integrated cargo tie-down hooks.

  • Sophisticated driver assistance technology

The new EcoSport builds on the commanding SUV driving position and rewarding Ford driving dynamics to deliver an even easier and more enjoyable driving experience using advanced technologies.

 Ford’s sophisticated SYNC®3 communications and entertainment system is available on the new EcoSport. SYNC®3 is supported by the new 8-inch colour touchscreen, which can be operated with pinch and swipe gestures. On the Trend model, SYNC®3 uses a 6.5-inch colour touchscreen.

Driver assistance and safety technologies common across all three specification levels comprise ABS brakes with Emergency Brake Assist (EBA) and Electronic Stability Control (ESC). The Trend and Titanium additionally gain Hill Launch Assist (HLA) which enables smooth pull-offs on steep inclines and declines.

NMRC: Affordable Housing Expands Economic Growth

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As the continent’s largest economy, international development experts, innovators and funders increasingly believe that Nigeria is positioned to provide a market-driven solution to one of the continent’s most significant challenges and opportunities: Affordable Housing.
While Nigeria’s size, ability to scale and recalibrated post-recession economy provides the ammunition for such a task, the scale of the endeavour requires the participation of multiple public and private sector participants to collaborate and make it a reality.
According to the Nigerian Mortgage Refinancing Company’s (NMRC’s) Executive Director for Policy and Strategy, Dr. Chii Akporji, major challenges mitigating against the robust growth of the housing sector in Nigeria include:

  • A challenging macroeconomic environment with high-interest rates and inflation;
  • Cumbersome land, titling and property registration procedures and the lack of a foreclosure mechanism;
  • A dearth of long-term finance for the mortgage origination business, though the NMRC is in business to mitigate this risk;
  • A dearth of affordable housing stock;
  • Poor mortgage literacy levels.

As a key driver in the sector, the NMRC is driving several ongoing efforts to de-risk the sector in collaboration with key housing sector stakeholders such as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), State Governments, Mortgage Banking Association of Nigeria (MBAN), the Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria (FMBN), Family Homes Fund (FHF) and major developers.
As Akporji explains, “The NMRC is a private sector-driven mortgage refinance company with the public purpose of developing the primary and secondary mortgage markets through raising long-term funds from the capital market, and leverage this to refinance qualifying mortgage portfolios of mortgage lending institutions, thereby promoting affordable home ownership through mortgages.”
In recognition of these efforts the 4th annual West Africa Property Investment Summit taking place on November 15 and 16 in Lagos will dedicate the region’s most prime real estate event to driving the conversation forward. Featuring multiple sessions and panel discussions, this year’s summit will fortify the foundation for affordable housing as a driver of economic growth.
As one of this year’s key participants and stakeholders, Dr. Akporji will be involved in critical sessions during this year’s two-day summit.
While affordable home ownership enabled through cost-effective and accessible mortgages are long-term objectives for the NMRC, she believes that their work is beginning to gain traction by utilising platforms for dialogues like the West Africa Property Investment Summit.
“WAPI is a convening platform for all stakeholders along the housing value chain, on a sub-regional level. By virtue of its reach, it remains the go to event for networking and knowledge sharing on trends and development in the real estate and construction industry on the continent.”
Arguably one of the most strident and recognisable voices in her field, Akporji also confirmed that she will be joined by NMRC’s new Managing Director/Chief Executive Kehinde Ogundimu, who will also be participating in panel sessions that revolve around affordable housing and financing during the two-day, 500 people gathering.
Also joining Akporji on the top-level session to explore one of the most complex tasks that have bedevilled policymakers will be international speakers Feyi Borrofice from the World Bank Group, USA, and the International Finance Corporation’s Ifeoma Ezeokafor (USA). A stellar panel, the three will discuss how to best mobilise private and public-sector institutional development financing for affordable housing.
While the topic is complex and layered, Akporji believes that the solutions can be addressed if we distinguish between private and the public-sector focuses and challenges, for example:
“Between subsidised/social housing and that provided by private sector developers who are business-oriented; and facilitate the institution of an enabling regulatory and investment climate for housing investment – affordable interest rate regimes, flexible and affordable titling, property registration and foreclosure mechanisms.”
Adding that for the private sector “The focus obviously will be on the bottom line but there could be a win-win partnership solution, especially with the leveraging of alternative building technologies and green construction methods to not only deliver affordable housing at scale but also positively impact the bottom line.”
Akporji points to the ongoing reforms and evolution of the roles of both the public and private sector along the housing value chain, which the NMRC, working with its partners is helping to achieve.
“State government partners are beginning to review their existing land and titling processes since they recognise its criticality to attracting investment in housing in the state and the importance of housing not only to citizens’ well-being but also for augmenting internally generated revenues. NMRC has signed MOUs with a number of these states for the adoption/passage of a draft Model Mortgage and Foreclosure Law.
“Kaduna State is the first state to pass the NMRC law and is already reaping the benefits including increased investment in the sector, enhanced ranking on the ease of doing business index, a reduced mortgage interest rate deal with a lending bank and mobilisation of development finance. Lagos state has amended an existing law alongside the MMFL following signing of an MOU with NMRC and remains the national leader in robust hosing policy, innovation and investment. Other states are the in the process of doing same, and projections are that these will begin to bear fruit following the elections early next year.”

African Dev Bank Unveils $500m Deal with African Trade Insurance Agency

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The African Development Bank (AfDB) and African Trade Insurance Agency (ATI) have announced the successful completion of a US$500 million credit insurance deal structured to cover a portion of the Bank’s portfolio of non-sovereign operations in Africa.
This transaction is expected to have an important demonstration effect to encourage similar institutions to invest more on the continent in the future.
While ATI will be the direct insurer facing the African Development Bank, the transaction involves the participation of a number of Lloyd’s & Company private reinsurers who will share the risk on African financial institutions. This vehicle will enable many insurance companies operating outside Africa to participate in the financing of development in Africa for the first time.
The deal is the second Balance Sheet Optimization transaction under the “Room to Run” initiative following the successful signing of the Synthetic Securitization transaction in September.
The insurance will cover approximately 22% of the Bank’s US$2.3 billion outstanding non-sovereign financial sector portfolio. Specifically, it will protect the Bank against the non-payment of loans made to approximately 30 African financial institutions. The portfolio spans the African continent, with exposure to financial institutions in all major regions of the continent, and is expected to release sufficient capital to create almost US$500 million of headroom for new lending.
“This transaction leverages the Bank’s own capital to achieve more development and lending as it creates new pathways for collaboration between private insurers and the Bank in the development of the African continent,” said Akinwumi Adesina, President of the African Development Bank Group. “This is a significant step towards enhancing Africa’s finance partnerships across the globe.”
Adesina added that, given Africa’s endowment as a resource-rich continent with a strong economic outlook, the Bank had adopted more efficient and effective initiatives to bridge the existing development financing gaps.
Penny Mordaunt, International Development Secretary commented, “This is a great example of how the City of London can partner with African institutions to mobilise more investment for developing countries and support the creation of the 18 million new jobs a year which Africa needs. This work is driving economic development abroad and supporting prosperity at home”.
The transaction is also expected to strengthen the development of credit insurance markets in Africa. The experience and comfort gained in transferring risks between the African Development Bank, the African Trade Insurance Agency and the Lloyd’s reinsurers is expected over time to lead to the lengthening of insurance terms and lower insurance and financing costs, leading to more trade and investment in, and among, the private sector and the African region.
“With ATI’s insurance guarantees leveraging the balance sheet of AfDB and crowding-in new investments, this innovation provides a timely solution to the scarcity of trade finance that could create enormous impact across the continent. ATI’s commitment reflects the US$35 billion worth of trade and investments that we have supported in the past decade, which, thanks to this model, can now be more easily replicated, to the ultimate benefit of Africa” said George Otieno, Chief Executive Officer of ATI. 
RFIB commented, “RFIBs Political Risk & Trade Credit team (PRTC) are delighted to have been able to assist the African Development Bank and ATI in putting together this significant insurance-backed programme that will allow the Bank to facilitate further lending, promoting further development in Africa.”
This landmark transaction between AfDB and ATI is one of several recent initiatives undertaken by the Bank under its “Room to Run” program that responds to the G20 and G7 call on the multilateral development banks (MDBs) to explore innovative ways to optimize their balance sheets to achieve the “Billions to Trillions” development agenda. Credit insurance is one of such instruments involving a specialized market with currently low penetration in Africa, but intent on playing a more active role.

Local Bourse Extends Bullish Run to 2nd Consecutive Trading Session

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nse

In yesterday’s trading session, the All Share Index advanced 69bps to settle at 33,191.45 points on account of buy interests in market bellwethers –DANGCEM (+2.1%), NESTLE (+2.2%) and FBNH (+4.3%). Similarly, market capitalisation rose by N83.5bn to N12.1tn while YTD loss moderated to -13.0%. However, activity level weakened as average volume and value traded dipped 39.3% and 110.6% to 185.1m units and N2.4bn respectively.

The top traded stocks by volume were FCMB (27.6m units), TRANSCORP (24.9m units) and GUARANTY (15.2m units) while GUARANTY (N553.9m), ZENITH (N318.8m) and NESTLE (N299.7m) led the top traded stocks by value.

Bullish Sector Performance
Performance across sectors was largely bullish as 3 of 5 indices under our coverage trended upwards. The Industrial Goods and Consumer Goods indices advanced the most, up 0.9% and 0.2% respectively on the back of gains in DANGCEM (+2.1%), NESTLE (+2.2%) and DANGFLOUR(+2.7%) while the Oil & Gas index rose by 0.1% as a result of buy interests in OANDO (+0.9%).

On the flip side, the Insurance index declined by 0.7%, following losses in NIGERINS (-7.1%) and NEM (-4.0%) while the Banking index shed 0.6% on account of sell-offs in ETI (-5.0%) and UBA (-1.2%).

Investor Sentiment Weakens
Investor sentiment as measured by market breadth (advance/decline ratio) weakened to 0.8x from 1.1x recorded in the previous trading session as 14 stocks appreciated against 18 decliners. TRANSCORP (+9.6%), HONEYFLOUR (+4.4%) and FBNH (+4.3%) were the best performing stocks while FIRSTALU (-9.1%), PZ (-7.7%) and MCNICHOLS (-7.4%) led laggards. On the back of the Q3 corporate earnings releases, we anticipate a bullish run in the equities market in the near term.

AfDB Approves $50m to Fidelity Bank for SME Support in Nigeria

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Mr. Nnamdi Okonkwo Managing Director/CEO Fidelity Bank Plc
Mr. Nnamdi Okonkwo Managing Director/CEO Fidelity Bank Plc

The African Development Bank (AfDB) has approved a US$50 million line of credit to Nigeria’s Fidelity Bank Plc to support small and medium sized and women-owned enterprises in selected transformative sectors, including close to a hundred SMEs in manufacturing, health and education.

Approved by the Bank’s Board on 10 October 2018, the facility is fully dedicated to financing micro, small and medium sized enterprises (MSMEs), with a minimum of 30 percent going to women-owned enterprises.

The loan will enhance Fidelity Bank’s liquidity and help meet the demand for medium-term funding to players in the target sectors, contributing to improved quality of lives, job and wealth creation and tax-revenue generation.

The facility complements the Government of Nigeria’s long-term development strategy, as espoused in its Vision 20:2020 agenda. Aligned with Nigeria’s Economic Recovery and Growth Plan 2017-2020 (ERPG), the funding will ultimately boost enterprise competitiveness and expand Nigeria’s economic base. The ERPG seeks to stimulate Nigeria’s economic growth, catalyse macro-economic stability, foster diversification of the economy, and enhance social inclusion as well as governance.

SMEs account for 30 percent of Fidelity Bank’s loan portfolio. The selection of the tier 2 Nigerian bank for this seven-year credit facility (with a grace period of two years) is based on its strong niche presence in the SME and mid-sized corporates space.

It is also in recognition of the bank’s credit management and strong track record with the African Development Bank. The Nigerian lender has previously received US$18 million and US$75 million lines of credit from the development finance institution in 2001 and 2013, respectively.

“Fidelity Bank is a niche player, focused on the SME space and this US$50 million credit line will contribute to strengthening its presence in its key market segments,” said Ebrima Faal, Senior Director, Nigeria Country Office at the African Development Bank. “The Nigerian financial institution also continues to meet its ongoing credit obligations under the terms of previous support received from the African Development Bank.”

The line of credit to the Nigerian financial institution is consistent with the Bank’s Ten-Year Strategy (2013–2022). It also aligns with two of its High 5 priorities – Industrialize Africa and Improve the quality of life for the people of Africa.

Founded in 1987, Fidelity Bank Plc has grown from its marginal position into a stable banking institution. Currently the 10th largest commercial bank in Nigeria by asset size, it was listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange in May 2005. It has a broad client base of about four million customers nationwide, served from a network of over 240 branches and business offices, supported by alternative service delivery channels like ATMs, mobile and electronic banking, and agency banking channels.

Following its renewed digital banking and retail drive, Fidelity Bank was ranked 4th best bank in Nigeria in the retail market segment in the KPMG Banking Industry Customer Satisfaction Survey (BICSS) in 2017.

Dell Expands UltraSharp Monitor for Innovation, Transformation

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As a new generation floods the job market, there is increasing focus on delivering superior experiences to both employees and customers. Enabling the workforce with better technology, including the right monitors is a way to heighten employees’ experience which in turn impacts customer experience.

The proliferation of data gives rise to a demand for better visualisation tools. Research3 shows that there is growing demand for larger screen size, better support for multitasking, higher resolution monitors and a clutter-free work area to enhance the visualisation of data.

As demographics change and millennials become professionals, visually appealing monitors that help in productivity will be key to attract and retain the best talents4.

As the world’s No. 1 monitor brand, Dell is meeting the demands of the future workforce with its new range of Dell UltraSharp monitors, featuring innovative design and technology to drive productivity with ultimate screen performance and an outstanding user experience.

The new monitors are designed to cater to users in financial services and insurance, trading floor, financial analysis and accounting, media post production, programming, and engineering.

The Dell UltraSharp 49 Curved, 32 4K USB-C and 34 Curved USB-C monitors come with significant features. Picture-by-Picture allows for multi-tasking content from two different PCs. A built-in keyboard, video and mouse (KVM) help users toggle between and edit content using a single keyboard and mouse. This new portfolio of UltraSharp monitors also offers convenient USB-C connectivity that charges the connected laptop while transmitting data and video signals, all from one single cable to reduce cable clutter.

“As the world’s favourite monitor brand Dell continues its legacy of leading innovation with multiple firsts in the industry. Once again, we have pushed the boundaries of display technology to deliver the world’s first 49-inch curved dual QHD monitor. This new monitor offers an immersive panoramic experience without compromising design or functionality,” said Kirk Schell, Senior Vice President, Dell Displays & Engineering.

“This revolutionary 49-inch curved monitor is focused on enhancing the performance and productivity of desk-centric users such as financial traders, bankers, creatives and engineers. With the new UltraSharp family, we remain committed to providing the best to meet the visualisation needs of our commercial customers.”

Dell is introducing the world’s first 49-inch curved dual QHD monitor with the revolutionary ultra-wide 32:9 aspect ratio for seamless multi-screen productivity. Delivering an immersive experience, this expansive monitor is the ideal replacement for two 27-inch QHD monitors. The large onscreen space with 5120 x 1440 resolution and IPS technology allows users to view more content and see fine details with consistent colour across a wide viewing angle.

Experience outstanding screen performance in amazing detail with Ultra HD 4K resolution –  four times more detail than Full HD. VESA certified DisplayHDR™ 400 supports HDR content playback for stunning, true-to-life images. Images appear in living colour revealing details that were previously tough to see with up to 400 nits of brightness (typical) and a colour depth of 1.07 billion colours. Complementing the vivid monitor is the virtually borderless InfinityEdge for an edge-to-edge viewing experience.

Discover precise performance and an immersive experience on this 34-inch curved USB-C monitor that elevates both work and entertainment. The ultra-wide 34-inch curved screen (WQHD (3440 x1440), IPS technology) with 21:9 aspect ratio offers a large onscreen space, ideal for multitasking, and built-in dual 9W speakers to complete the experience from sight to sound.

The Dell UltraSharp 24 and 27 USB-C monitors each feature a thin side profile and small monitor base to optimise desk space, perfect for shrinking modern office spaces. The virtually borderless bezel delivers an edge-to-edge viewing experience, ideal for a seamless multi-monitor set up.

The new 24-inch (FHD) and 27-inch (QHD) monitors come with two different options, with and without USB-C connectivity, for superb screen performance in an innovative design.

“It’s amazing that Dell is so far out front on the monitor scene,” said Jon Peddie, President at Jon Peddie Research. “Dell’s expanding displays portfolio highlights the company’s vision of meeting every customer’s displays needs.”

Global Airlines Financial Monitor: September 2018

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emirates
  • The final Q2 2018 airline financial data confirm a decline in airline profitability compared to the same quarter a year ago. Industry-wide cash flows are better than a year ago, but this masks considerable regional differences.
  • Global airline share prices eased lower in September, despite a 1.0% gain in the North American sub-index and notwithstanding a small gain in global equities overall. Over the past year, North American airline shares continue to outperform the wider equities market.
  • Oil and jet fuel prices both moved solidly higher in September, driven mainly by supply concerns. Oil prices have risen by around 40% over the past year and jet fuel prices averaged more than US$90bbl in September.
  • Global (total) passenger yields (base fare only) have moved a little higher in recent months, with premium cabin yields continuing to show more resilience than those of the economy cabin and helping to offset some of the impact of rising input prices.
  • Passenger demand remained solid into the peak northern hemisphere summer period. Although freight demand has recently eased to a modest pace, yields appear to be holding up.