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Global Airlines Financial Monitor: August 2016

  • The latest financial results from Q2 2016 point to another solid quarter for industry profitability and cash flow, although CFOs report that they no longer expect further improvement in profitability over the next 12 months;
  • Global airline share prices fell by 1.6% in August, and remain well down on where they started the year;
  • Brent crude oil prices rallied during much of August, but fell back to $47/bbl by the end of the month. The futures market and oil analysts continue to expect prices to remain below $55/bbl for the foreseeable future;
  • Downward pressure on yields has intensified over the past six months or so, in line with the moderation in demand;
  • Premium airfares have held up better than their economy counterparts on many of the key premium routes so far this year, and the segment continues to offer a buffer for overall airline financial performance;
  • The global air passenger market showed resilience into the peak summer period, with lower fares helping to offset more negative influences on demand. The (SA) industry-wide load factor edged down in July, but remains high;
  • Conditions for air freight have improved from the weak patch seen in early-2016, but there remain reasons to be cautious. Low freight loads are keeping downward pressure on cargo yields and revenues.
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