By

Tony Ojobo

“Your job won’t be taken by AI, but rather by someone

who understands and knows how to use AI.”

Nicky Verd

When the San Francisco-based Open AI launched the Artificial Intelligence (AI) chatbot, ChatGPT, on November 30, 2022, industry watchers knew that a significant disruptor in the labour marketplace had arrived. Followers of developments in the digital technology space are no strangers to disruptive innovations, a term coined by Professor Clayton Christensen of Harvard University in 1995.

In the book, The Innovators Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail (1997), Professor Christensen delved extensively into “Disruptive Innovations.” Recently there have been reports of students using ChatGPT for assignments. The App can deliver well-written papers on most subjects flawlessly.

Recently, Harvard University adopted Artificial Intelligence for some of its programs. The institution launched the “CS50 bot”, similar to ChatGPT, to improve students’ learning experience in the coding class and assist instructors in responding to student inquiries. The Chatbot will offer criticism of the student’s code designs and errors and help develop their problem-solving skills on a 24/7 basis (https://lnkd.in/ewzEYZMU)

Also, in the US, there have been discussions on the need to develop policies that will guide the use of Artificial Intelligence in areas that could affect national security. The Brookings Center on Regulations and Markets and the AI, Analytics and the Future of Work Initiative held a conference at Georgetown University, Washington, DC, on March 15, 2023, to examine the impact AI and innovations, such as ChatGPT, could have on the future of work.

Speakers at the conference asserted that Artificial Intelligence algorithms would either “complement workers’ competencies and increase their productivity or reduce the employability of humans altogether.” They further advised that understanding these trends is critical for policymakers, company executives and workers.

In a PwC Survey, “Global Workforce Hopes and Fears 2023”, 52% of the workforce opined that AI would impact their career positively, 31% indicated that it would help productivity and efficiency, 27% stated it would create opportunities for new skills development, while 21% think it will create new opportunities for jobs.

The World Economic Forum (WEF), in “The Future of Job Report” of April 30, 2023, stressed, among others, that,

• Economic, health and geopolitical trends have created divergent outcomes for labour markets.
• Technology adoption will drive business transformation in the next five years.
• The significant labour disruptions come from environmental, technological, and economic trends.
• Technologies would have net positive effects on jobs in the next five years.
• Essential skills in 2023 would be analytical and creative thinking skills.
• 44% of workers’ skills would face disruption in the next five years
• 60% of workers would require training before 2027, but available training facilities may be inadequate.

Disruptive Innovations, undoubtedly, have led to job displacements, losses and even changes in business models. Observers of these trends give the example of the ride-hailing disruptor Uber, which launched in 2009. The Uber launch, fortuitously, was an innovation that arose due to a challenging scenario that confronted two San Francisco-based techies, Travis Kalanick and Garrett Camp, on a trip to Paris. It was winter, and due to the cold weather, Taxi drivers would not move until a passenger initiated a contact. The duo could not get a driver; hence they got stuck in the hotel. As they wondered about the next move, they said, “What if you could request a ride by tapping your phone? That was it! That situation led to the development of one of the most effective ride-hailing services in the world.

Globally, traditional Taxi-hailing services have faced significant competition and declining patronage due to competition from Uber. They have displaced several Taxi operators, taking a considerable chunk of the market share in that segment. Statistics as of 2020 indicate that 93 million customers use Uber, with 3.5 million drivers, grossing $26.61 billion. It has 22,800 employees worldwide, with 12,400 outside the US. Uber completes 1.44 billion rides every quarter (Https://backlinko.com/uber-users# ).

In Nigeria, at the Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja, there have been reports of scuffles between Airport Taxi operators and Uber and Bolt (another ride-hailing service founded on August 3, 2013) operators. Most passengers prefer Uber and Bolt for cost-effectiveness, comfort, and security. The Taxi operators have complained of declining patronage due to the incursion of the hailing App operators into the business space.

A 2016 World Bank report estimates that 66.6% of jobs in developing countries may face redundancy due to digital innovations. The report indicated that low to middle-skilled administrative and routine employment might be affected, stressing that 40% of jobs in Nigeria could be affected due to automation of work processes (World Bank, 2016, p.23).

In 2018, the International Labour Organisation (ILO) carried out a literature review of 255 studies on the Future of Work. In their inception report, tagged “ILO’s Global Commission on the Future of Work”, they made several significant findings on the future of work. The report indicated that the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) would focus on technological innovations such as AI, robotics, Machine Learning and Analytics. The statement affirmed that jobs might be lost or replaced due to the introduction of automation, AI, robots, and computerisation, stressing that introducing these digital innovations could lead to job displacements and labour substitution. The report further argued that digital technology will be an essential factor for the future of work, stressing that job quality, for example, will depend extensively on an employee’s ability to use digital technology in the workplace effectively. During the Covid-19 lockdown, some employees who lacked digital skills and could not work remotely lost their jobs.

The covid-19 pandemic in 2019 disrupted the global economy, affecting aviation, logistics, commerce, travel and tours, health, education, and family life. Due to the contagious nature of the virus, governments worldwide introduced measures, such as wearing facemasks, social distancing, and, eventually, a lockdown to curb the spread. Many organisations closed their offices for several weeks and months. The World Health Organisation (WHO) issued advisories on the measures countries should take to curb the spread of the pandemic. Airports were closed, and travel, local and international restricted. The travel ban took a toll on the aviation industry. There was a total global lockdown. Amid the lockdown and ban on cross-border travel, digital technology came to the rescue, hence the emergence of remote working, the boom in online sales of goods and services, courier services, home deliveries, and real estate. Digital innovations have sky-rocketed post-Covid and introduced changes in work culture, job specifications and demography.

The World Economic Forum (WEF) Report of March 2023 indicated that 60% of the global workforce would require training in the next five years, depending on the nature of work, expertise, and experience. The report indicated that technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), Robotics, the Internet of Things (IoTs), Augmented Reality (AR), Big Data, and Machine Learning (ML) would play significant roles in the labour market in the next five years. The above-mentioned makes it imperative that employees and job seekers improve their digital skills to retain their jobs or be employable. Requisite digital skills are necessary for job retention and recruitment in modern organisations. Digital technology will disrupt the standard job requirements and culture.

In the on-going debate, experts have opined that the Block Chain (BC) technology will structurally create disruptions in the financial sector, affecting banking, accountancy, and insurance. Experts believe digital innovations would also affect legal and translation services. Digital technology creates new opportunities for BC developers, Internet of Things (IoTs) architects, Cloud architects, Big Data, Data Analytics, AI, Robotics, Augmented Reality (AR), Machine Learning, and Deep Learning.

Emerging innovations are disrupting traditional business models and work as we know it. Therefore, this article is to sensitise job seekers and professionals about these developments so that they acquire the relevant skills for the emerging changes in job requirements. Disruptive innovations are not unusual; however, the positives are that these disruptions occur and, in that process, create new opportunities. Take Uber for an example and the opportunities it has created for young people to earn some income.

Every disruptive innovation creates new opportunities. The innovations coming out of ICT Hubs scattered all over the country are worthy of note. The digital innovations in the Fintech space have created numerous job opportunities and simplified cross-border payments. Organisations such as Flutterwave, Accelerex, E-transact, Remita, Interswitch, Paystack, Paga, Piggyvest, Kuda, OPay and others took the risk, disrupted traditional business models, and stamped their feet on the global fintech map.

Disruptive innovations are not bad, but the result of tapping human ingenuity to make a difference. Thus, people should upscale their knowledge to embrace disruptive changes.

Tony Ojobo, former Director of Public Affairs, Nigerian Communications Commission, writes from Abuja.

The Chairman of the Association of Licensed Telecoms Operators of Nigeria (ALTON), Mr. Gbenga Adebayo, has praised the exceptional leadership of the Executive Vice Chairman/Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), Professor Umar Garba Danbatta.

He also commended the NCC’s commitment to quality regulation, attributing the success of the telecom industry in the country to the regulatory environment it enjoys.

Speaking at a meeting with mobile network operators on the implementation of the Expanded Revenue Assurance Solution (ERAS) in the telecommunications industry, held at the NCC’s office in Lagos, Adebayo expressed his pride in Danbatta’s remarkable administrative skills, challenging the notion that engineers are not good administrators. He described Danbatta as an excellent administrator, highlighting his instrumental role in the growth and development of the industry.

Addressing the audience, Danbatta shared details about the implementation of the ERAS project. He emphasised the collaboration between the NCC and the Infrastructure Concession and Regulatory Commission (ICRC), saying the ERAS project is being carried out through a Public-Private Partnership (PPP) arrangement, following the DFDDOT model (Design, Finance, Develop, Deploy, Operate, and Transfer), as recommended by the ICRC.

Danbatta acknowledged the efforts of the NCC in transforming the dream of the ERAS Project, conceived in 2007, into a reality. He also underscored the project’s alignment with the Federal Government’s directive to enhance revenue collection and prevent leakages within ministries, departments, and agencies (MDAs).

By deploying the Revenue Assurance Solution, Danbatta said the NCC aims to optimise the revenue payable by licensed telecommunications service providers, thereby bolstering revenue generation for the government.

Initially designed to focus on telecom operators, who have not only become major industry players but have also expanded their services into the digital services ecosystem, the ERAS Project underwent a significant expansion.

In June 2022, following a presidential approval, the NCC was directed to broaden the scope of the project to encompass the activities of Digital Economy stakeholders. Consequently, the project was renamed the Expanded Revenue Assurance Solution (ERAS).

The implementation of the ERAS demonstrates the NCC’s commitment to fostering transparency, accountability, and financial efficiency within the Nigerian telecom and digital services sectors. Through the utilisation of accurate data and information, the ERAS aims to eradicate wrong computations, faulty data, and information leakages.

With the telecom industry playing a critical role in driving economic growth and enabling digital transformation, the ALTON Chairman’s commendation and the on-going efforts of the NCC under Danbatta’s leadership highlight the commitment to creating an enabling regulatory environment that fosters innovation and sustainable development.

As the implementation of the Expanded Revenue Assurance Solution progresses, stakeholders within the telecom and digital services sectors eagerly anticipate its positive impact on revenue generation and the overall growth of the Nigerian economy.

L-R: Mustapha Isa, Former President, Nigerian Guild of Editors (NGE); Ochereome Nnanna, Chairman, Editorial Board, Vanguard Newspapers; Prof. Umar Danbatta, Executive Vice Chairman/Chief Executive Officer, Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC); Sam Omatseye, Chairman, Editorial Board, The Nation Newspapers and Usman Malah, Director, Human Capital and Administration, NCC at a Media Roundtable organised by the Commission in Lagos today.

• As sector added N10.126 trillion to GDP in 2022

The Executive Vice Chairman (EVC) of the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), Prof. Umar Garba Danbatta, has officially announced that the investment profile in the nation’s telecommunications sector, comprising foreign direct investment (FDI) and local investment, has reached $75.6 billion as of 2021.

Danbatta disclosed this at an interactive session with stakeholders in the communications media ecosystem, in Lagos on Wednesday where he provided his scorecards and landmark developments that have shaped the trajectory of growth in the telecoms sector since he became the chief telecom regulator in August 2015.

According to Danbatta, in 2018, investment profile in the sector stood at $68 billion. This increased to $70.5 billion in 2019 and $72 billion in 2020. At the end of 2021, the figure rose to $75,560,563,417.79 ($75.6 billion). The latest figure is the current official investment profile computed in the industry up from the initial $70 billion investment in the last few years.

Investment in the telecommunications sector in Nigeria is computed from two sources: the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), and the financial data obtained from service providers by the Commission.

While the CBN collects and calculates an element of the telecoms sector to include FDI, portfolio and others, the Commission collects investment figures from telecom licensees described as domestic investment arising from capital expenditure (CAPEX) which form part of the total investment in the industry.

The NCC CEO said through effective regulatory environment put in place by the Commission, the telecom sector has recorded tremendous growth from an initial investment profile of $500 million as at 2001, when the sector was fully liberalised.

Similarly, Danbatta said the telecom sector has continued to be a major contributor to the Nigeria’s economy through an impressive the sectoral contribution to the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) quarterly, up from about 8.5 per cent in third quarter of 2015, contributing N10.126 trillion to the nation’s GDP in 2022 alone.

Citing data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Danbatta said the telecoms sector contributed N10.126 trillion as an aggregate quarterly contribution to GDP in 2022.

“In the first quarter, the sector contributed 12.94 per cent equivalent to N2.246 trillion while the second quarter witnessed an all-time high GDP contribution by the telecom sector to the nation’s economy, standing at 15 per cent and valued at N2.593 trillion. The sector’s contribution to GDP in the third was 12.85 per cent and in the fourth quarter, it grew to 13.55 per cent, which are valued at N2.436 trillion and N2.851 trillion respectively.

“The growth trajectory continued this year as telecommunications and Information Services sector in Nigeria delivered a handsome N2. 508 trillion in terms of financial value contribution to the nation’s gross domestic product, GDP, representing 14.13% in the first quarter 2023,” he said.

Telecoms contribution to national GDP has grown significantly since assumption of Prof. Danbatta as the EVC of NCC in August, 2015, according to available data from NBS.

From 8.50 per cent in 2015, it grew to 9.13 per cent in 2016 and to 8.66 per cent in 2017. In the last quarter of 2018, telecoms contributed 9.85 per cent to national GDP while it added 10.60 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2019.

Also in the second quarter of 2010, it added 14.30 per cent to GDP; 14.42 per cent in the second quarter of 2021. The highest quarterly contribution to GDP by the sector to the economy was 15 per cent in the second quarter of 2022.

Overall, Danbatta said the sector has become a major enabler of economic development in Nigeria, as it continues to positively impact all the facets of the Nigerian economy. “As the regulatory authority for the telecom sector in Nigeria, we are happy that the sector has recorded phenomenal growth statistics in the past two decades of the liberalization of the telecoms sector. However, we will not rest on our oars. We will continue to push upward to greater heights by encouraging expansion of frontiers to put Nigeria’s imprint on the global map of digital economy,” he said.

In addition to the growth in investment and GDP contribution, Danbatta said, “As of May, 2023, active voice subscriptions reached 221.3 million, equivalent of 115.91 per cent teledensity, while Internet subscriptions rose to 159.6 million.

According to the CEO of NCC, broadband subscriptions on Third Generation (3G) and Fourth Generation (4G) networks increased to 92.2 million, representing a 48.28 per cent broadband penetration in the country.

Also, following the issuance of 3.5GHz spectrum licences for the deployment of Fifth Generation (5G) networks in Nigeria, marked by ultra-high-speed internet, low latency and high capacity, and the subsequent commercial launch by two of the three licence holders, 5G subscriptions have grown to over 60,000 in many cities in at least 12 states of the Federation.

Danbatta assured of the Commission’s commitment to always give concrete expression to the Federal Government Executive Order 001 focused on Ease of Doing Business and other digital economy-oriented policies, by embarking on various regulatory initiatives that support a friendly investment climate for investors in Nigeria and enhance value for money for telecom consumers.

The EVC particularly commended the media as a strategic partner and enabler of growth in the telecom sector “through accurate, adequate and timely reporting of all regulatory activities of the Commission.”