By Haniel Ukpaukure

If President Muhammadu Buhari’s promise to put in place a substantive board for the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC) after the phased implementation of the recommendations of the forensic audit he ordered into its activities its anything to go by, then Nigerians should expect that the era of interim administration for the interventionist agency would soon come to an end.

While the promise by the president, made at the fifth National Council Meeting on Niger Delta in Uyo, recently, put paid to agitations for the end of interim administration in the agency, it predictably sparked struggle and intrigues among high-ranking members of the ruling All Progressives Congress members from the Niger Delta region over determination of the shape and composition of the board expected to be appointed for the agency.

It is pertinent to mention that Nigerians do not know the contents of the audit report, and its recommendations. It is therefore difficult to know when implementation of the recommendations started, and when it would end, especially since it is being done, as Buhari said, in phases.

It may be safe to assume, however, that since it is a firm promise and commitment from none other than the president, constitution of the long-awaited board would be done before the curtain falls on the life of the administration on May 29, 2023.

But while we await the constitution of a board for NDDC, it is important to look at the performance of the Effiong Akwa-led administration of the agency as sole administrator. The appointment of Akwa in December, 2020, followed the ruling of a Federal High Court in Abuja, which declared the Interim Management Committee of Professor Daniel Pondei as illegal. Before Pondei, Ms Joi Nunieh had held the same position.

Akwa’s mandate, among others, was to facilitate and fast track the forensic audit of NDDC which became necessary due to many years of unbridled corruption by previous administrations, with politicians from the region as the greatest beneficiaries.

His appointment was met with stiff opposition from some quarters, with some saying Buhari had no power under the law that set up NDDC to appoint a sole administrator for it, obviously ignorant of the president’s constitutional power to take any action he deems necessary for any government ministry, department and agency, which he considers to be in public interest. In the midst of the opposition, Akwa had the support of some major stakeholders in the region, including over 50 civil society organisations.

In the 22 months he has been in office, Akwa has tried his best to deliver on his mandate as someone whose job is a stop gap for the period the forensic audit of the agency lasted. He has facilitated and successfully managed a smooth exercise that saw a consortium of audit firms pore over the books of NDDC and visit project sites in nine states over many months – the first of its kind in the agency and, indeed, any government institution in the country. He deserves credit for this. Whether or not Nigerians will ever get to know the contents of the audit report is another matter.

Akwa has collaborated with the National Assembly on the amendment of the NDDC Act, to make reforms of the agency possible, especially the need to plug the loopholes that allowed the high rate of corruption that was witnessed since the establishment of the agency to thrive.

The NDDC, under his watch, has been able to carry out a number of interventions in the different states that comprise the Niger Delta in collaboration with state governors, aimed at providing the basic infrastructure and facilities that enhance quality of life for those for which they are meant – in educational and health institutions, including training of over 1000 youths in ICT, as well as other public facilities. Notable among such interventions was the construction of a 1050-bed hostel in the University of Uyo, Akwa Ibom State.

In one of such interventions, over 250 men, women and youths recently graduated from the Livelihood Improvement Family Enterprise Programme of the Federal Government in Edo State. The programme, which was funded by NDDC, International Fund for Agriculture (IFAD) and the Federal Government, was designed to promote agriculture as an alternative source of foreign exchange, with focus on rice, cassava, fishery and poultry farming. A similar programme is being implemented in other states of the Niger Delta.

In an initiative that was designed to positively engage youths in the region and channel their energy into productive ventures, NDDC organized the first ever Niger Delta Talent Hunt, a musical programme that was aimed at discovering musical talents in the region and building capacity for wealth creation.

The winner of the talent hint, Elvis Lunar, a singer from Rivers State, got the star prize of a car and performance trip to Dubai, while second and third place winners got N2 million and N1 million, respectively.

It mustn’t be forgotten that Akwa supervised the completion of the corporate headquarters of NDDC, a project that had been abandoned for over 20 years. I’m wondering if the money the agency spent on rent over since its establishment can easily be computed.

Akwa’s job has been made easy by the fact that he had been an insider in NDDC before his current appointment, his previous position being that of an acting executive director in charge of finance. He did not need to learn the ropes first, before settling into the job. He will certainly leave is mark when he bows out.

Ukpaukure, a media/publicity consultant and writer, lives in Lagos.

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By Michael Owhoko, Ph.D

Without prejudice to extent of preparations, has government genuinely evaluated reasons for dispute and rejection of previous census results in Nigeria before proceeding to organise another headcount?

Results of census conducted in 1962, 1963, 1973, 1991 and 2006 were all marred by anomalies and controversies allegedly engendered by manipulation and falsification of figures.

Were there any lessons learnt from these disputes? So far, all contentious issues that diminished and undermined the credibility of the previous exercises together with emerging fresh challenges are still widespread.

Distrust induced by ethnic dominance, religious supremacy, nepotism, inappropriate political structure, dishonesty, insecurity, corruption, poverty and socio-economic uncertainty are still staring at us as monsters.  Preconceived notion of increased revenue and political representation as basis for census rather than national planning and development, is another matter.

Without visible genuine efforts at resolving these hiccups, the National Population Commission (NPC) charged with conduct of census, including collation and analysis of population data has scheduled population census for April next year, approximately a month after the 2023 general elections holding between February and March.  The National Council of State has also gone ahead to endorse the exercise without rigorous evaluation of potential exposures.

In the face of current realities devoid of enabling environment, the timing is a miscalculation.  The general elections and census are both inflammable events, which should not be scheduled close to each other.  More worrisome is the fact that nobody can predict the outcome of the 2023 general elections which may likely spill into the census period.  From the body language of youths across the country who are major victims of years of misgovernance, it may not be business as usual.  So, why schedule a census under this condition?

Perhaps, if government had painstakingly carried out a risk assessment of the timing of both the elections and census within the context of Nigeria’s sociological complex configuration, both exercises would have been staggered apart by a minimum of one year.  No amount of risk mitigation strategy can contain associated emotions, particularly under a government that is challenged by trust deficit.  Rather than resolve these flaws, government is treading same path, with erroneous expectation of credible outcome.

In a multi-ethnic society like Nigeria where population census is used as basis for revenue allocation, the stakes are high, and so, citizens’ trust in government as an unbiased umpire devoid of sectional leanings, must not be in doubt.   Unfortunately, the distrust that characterized the previous failed exercises is popping up.

This is evident from the recent statement of Oyo State Governor, Seyi Makinde, when he advised NPC to “Be accurate and impartial. Declare what you capture. If the population of the state is less than 15 million, it is false and inaccurate. Do your work accurately.’’

By this declaration, Makinde has stirred up the hornet’s nest, and ready to reject any figure that is less than 15 million for Oyo State.  In the past, the Lagos State government rejected the 2006 census while the Igbo sociocultural organization, Ohanaeze, said the exercise reduced the Igbo to a minority group, casting aspersion on the credibility of the whole exercise.

Besides, all over the world, peace is a sine qua non and a critical factor for conduct of successful population census.  It is for this reason nations first determine its availability, and where otherwise, take appropriate measures to promote it, particularly ahead of major sensitive milestones like national headcount.

Currently, Nigeria lacks peace that is adequate enough to guarantee free and fair census.  Except to live in denial, the country is faced with unresolved multifaceted crises.  Peace is not only the absence of war, but also the existence of impediments to human endeavors.  Human delivery capacity in Nigeria is currently at its lowest ebb.

Where is the peace when travel and movement of goods by road or rail across the country is threatened by insecurity and associated risks?  Nigerians now invoke divine intervention for safe arrival at their destinations before embarking on a journey by road.  Inadequate security cover to facilitate safe deployment of men and census materials to all nook and cranny of the country may hinder the exercise. This also explains why NPC has not been able to demarcate enumeration areas in all the 774 local government areas in the country.

In the northern part of the country, particularly in the North East and North Central, Boko Haram, ISWAP, Fulani herdsmen, terrorists and bandits hold sway, driving fear among travelers. The southern part is also not better as travelers hold their breath until they get to their destinations due to fear created by these groups and other criminal elements.  So, how do you conduct credible census under this situation?

There are many families that have been displaced from their places of abode and ancestral homes, while others are either taking refuge in the bushes or are in Internally Displaced People (IDP)’s camp.  Those that have not returned to their homes owing to fear of being killed or kidnapped have not been accounted for.  Traces of these group of persons have not been established till date by relations or friends, and so, are unavailable for enumeration.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) recently admitted that insecurity was having a toll on data collection for field surveys.

The Statistician-General of the Federation and CEO of NBS, Adeyemi Adeniran, disclosed this at a conference organised by National Statistical Association in Keffi, Nasarawa State, where he said that enumerators were unable to access certain parts of the country for data collection due to insecurity.

With this revelation, do we need a prophet to tell us that the 2023 population census cannot be achieved?  In the absence of any hidden agenda and desperation of government to score a political point, the NPC knows that it is difficult to achieve a reliable census figure under the current security setting, as there is no magic that can contain insurgency in the troubled areas before commencement of census in April 2023.

Where is the peace when corruption of census process is fueled by subsisting economic, political and demographic interests.  Some census officials are compromised in the course of gathering, collating, analyzing and producing data on population.  These officials are either bribed, intimidated or coerced to inflate or allocate numbers for ethnic advantage.  This has been the trend in all the census conducted so far in Nigeria.

Where is the peace when the credibility and capacity of the present administration under President Muhammadu Buhari to deliver on such an important project is smeared by skepticism induced by nepotism and presidential preferences, which have fragmented the country along ethnic and religious lines?  Suspicion and lack of trust among citizens have deepened more than ever before.

Where is the peace when the country’s border with Niger Republic is opened and reinforced by policy of issuance of visa on arrival, allegedly aimed at bloating Fulani population in Nigeria.

Illegal aliens from Niger Republic enter the country unchecked, while some others are alleged to have obtained National Identification Number (NIN) from the National Identity Management Commission (NIMC) to qualify them as citizens, thereby giving the North undue demographic advantage over the South.

Where is the peace when there is no grass root enlightenment campaign to draw attention to the exercise.  Majority of Nigerians are unaware of a scheduled census for April next year due partly to lack of access to electricity, internet and other communication networks.

How many Nigerians can confidently affirm that their households were enumerated during the last trial census conducted by NPC ahead of the main exercise?  I am sure millions of Nigerians were not aware.

Where is the peace when enumerators are constrained by poor demographic maps caused by unreliable digital technology, including geographic information system (GIS), satellite and aerial photographs, cartography and geographical positioning system (GPS), resulting in inability to capture remote areas with difficult topography.

Where is the peace when insufficient capacity building and dearth of qualified personnel are further constraints. NPC is currently not fully equipped with enough skilled personnel, forcing it to rely on ad- hoc and temporary personnel, including members of the National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) who are inadequately trained.

Notwithstanding the United Nations’s recommendation that census be conducted every 10 years, Nigeria is not ready for the 2023 census.  Population census is a sensitive matter that must be conducted under an atmosphere of peace to achieve credible and desired outcome.

The 2023 population census should therefore be postponed till such a time when all grey areas would have been addressed by NPC, otherwise, the exercise will amount to waste of time and resources, including the over N200 billion budgeted for the scheme.

Dr. Mike Owhoko, Lagos-based journalist and author, can be reached at www.mikeowhoko.com.