By Elvis Eromosele
In the first quarter of 2025, a curious paradox is playing out across Nigeria’s economic landscape. Discerning observers will notice that the nation’s economic landscape tells a story of stark contrasts.
On the one hand, households groan under the weight of runaway inflation, forex instability, fuel price hikes, and an unrelenting surge in the cost of living. On the other, a stream of earnings reports from banks, telecoms, FMCGs, and even manufacturing firms show a steady rise in revenues and profits.
It almost feels surreal: while the average Nigerian tightens their belt to survive, boardrooms are raising glasses to another quarter in the black. How are companies thriving when their customers are barely surviving?
The answer appears to lie in a complex interplay of strategic pricing, market consolidation, cost-cutting measures, and, unfortunately, consumer sacrifice. Many of Nigeria’s leading corporates have adopted recession-proof strategies that prioritize shareholder value, often at the expense of affordability and accessibility for the average consumer.
Take the financial sector, for instance. Tier-one banks such as Zenith (PAT N312 billion), GTCO (PAT N258 billion), and Access Holdings (PAT N182 billion) all reported robust Q1 2025 profits. These were largely fueled by non-interest income, transaction charges, FX revaluation gains, and aggressive digital expansion.
While interest rates soared, banks reaped returns on government securities and leveraged forex differentials to boost their margins. Meanwhile, small business owners and salary earners struggle to get loans or survive excessive transaction fees.
In the telecoms space, MTN Nigeria (PAT N133 billion) and Airtel Africa (PAT $31 million) posted impressive earnings as data consumption remains inelastic, even during hard times. With more Nigerians relying on mobile data for work, education, and survival, telcos are cashing in. However, data costs have steadily increased, often quietly, adding to household burdens.
Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) giants like Nestlé (PAT N30 billion), Cadbury Nigeria (PAT N5.9 billion) and Unilever (PAT N5.2 billion) also joined the profit party.
With dollar volatility affecting import costs, many firms have localised production, increased prices, and reduced pack sizes (a practice known as “shrinkflation”). Consumers, in turn, are forced to adjust consumption habits, often choosing between quantity and quality.
The success of big business however raises uncomfortable questions: is Nigeria’s private sector truly growing sustainably, or merely extracting value in a way that widens the inequality gap?
What is emerging is a two-speed economy. On one track, corporates optimize profits through agility, digital transformation, and price adjustments. On the other, citizens face daily hardships, shrinking purchasing power, stagnant wages, and rising unemployment. The middle class is thinning, while poverty deepens.
I think that government inaction and weak regulation often compound the situation. There may also be companies that exploit regulatory loopholes or benefit from policies that insulate their sectors from real competition. While this fuels short-term gains, it does little to build long-term inclusive growth or economic resilience.
To align corporate success with citizen welfare, Nigeria must prioritize policies that channel profits into inclusive growth. First, the government should expand targeted cash transfers and food subsidies to shield the poorest households from inflation’s bite. Headline inflation stood at 24.23 per cent in the period under review. No wonder therefore that the World Bank’s call for accelerated social protection programs is urgent. Second, investing in labour-intensive sectors like manufacturing and agriculture could create jobs and reduce rural-urban disparities. In addition, addressing insecurity in farming regions would lower food prices, tackling inflation at its root.
Third, monetary policy must balance inflation control with economic stimulus. The Central Bank’s tight policy, while necessary, has raised borrowing costs, stifling small businesses that employ millions. A gradual easing, as inflation is projected to fall to 22.1 per cent in 2025, could spur growth without reigniting price pressures. (NB: A tight monetary policy, implemented by a central bank, aims to curb rapid economic growth and control inflation by slowing down spending and reducing the money supply.)
Finally, companies must share the burden. Corporate social responsibility initiatives, such as affordable pricing for essential goods or investments in community infrastructure, could ease public discontent and foster goodwill.
This is the core of the matter. The glowing quarterly results splashed across business pages paint a picture of corporate triumph, but it’s one cast against a backdrop of growing national despair. This contrast cannot be ignored, and it is also not sustainable.
The corporate sector’s resilience is a testament to adaptability and innovation, but it also underscores a troubling truth: economic growth alone does not lift all boats. Nigeria’s economic narrative cannot be solely about profits and stock valuations; it must include people.
If companies are winning while citizens are weeping, then we are all losing in the long run. What’s needed is a recalibration: one where businesses pursue profit with purpose, governments enforce equity, and the well-being of Nigerians becomes the bottom line that truly matters.
Eromosele, a corporate communication professional and public affairs analyst, wrote via: [email protected]
