The latest edition of ITU’s annual global ICT regulatory report, Trends in Telecommunication Reform 2016,charts and analyzes the challenges and opportunities facing today’s ICT regulators as services proliferate, platforms converge and network operators ready their infrastructure for the next round of data-intensive technologies, from 5G mobile to the Internet of Things (IoT).

The world’s most comprehensive overview of ICT policy and regulatory trends, ITU’s Trends in Telecommunication Reform 2016 brings together insights from a broad range of leading global experts to help regulators, ICT analysts and tech journalists gain a deeper understanding of the issues facing an increasingly broad array of ICT players – and consumers.

New ICT goods and services are bringing with them enormous social and economic disruption. But while there are many benefits to be reaped, the report highlights regulatory challenges that must be addressed to preserve the ‘level playing field’ considered essential to competition and innovation. With the theme of ‘exploring regulatory incentives to achieve digital opportunities’, the report emphasizes the growing importance of flexible, light-touch, technology-neutral regulatory principles which stimulate market growth while protecting the rights of consumers and encouraging new entrants.

“Information and communication technologies are now all-pervasive and will be central to helping the world meet all 17 Sustainable Development Goals. The role of ICT regulators in creating an enabling environment for ICT growth and development has never been more critical,” said Houlin Zhao, ITU Secretary-General. “ITU’s annual Trends in Telecommunication Reform report supports regulators around the world to put the right policies in place for their national markets.”

“To realize the full potential of the digital economy, policy-makers and regulators have a key role to play in building policy and regulatory environments in which new technologies can flourish,” said Brahima Sanou, Director of ITU’s Telecommunication Development Bureau. “This 16th annual edition of Trends in Telecommunication Reform focuses on regulatory incentives to achieve digital opportunities which I believe upholds the ultimate goal of regulators: serving consumers.”

Key findings of the 2016 edition:
Broadband investment

Capital expenditures on fibre infrastructure are expected to surpass USD 144.2 billion between 2014 – 2019.
More than 40 operators have launched or are planning LTE-A deployments worldwide; 88% of these operators are in developed markets.

The rise in consumer data consumption may spur more Wi-Fi investment.

Increasing numbers of existing operators, new entrants and financiers are developing alternative funding approaches for broadband network investments.

Investment in broadband infrastructure is also coming from more unlikely institutions such as hedge funds or corporates that do not traditionally invest in telecoms infrastructure.

Network Sharing

When network coverage becomes less of a competitive differentiator, operators may need to consolidate networks (through network sharing) as a means of moving away from infrastructure investment and towards developing innovative services.
Governments currently allocate spectrum mainly on a dedicated basis. New dynamic spectrum access (DSA) technologies allow devices to use spectrum where it is not being used in a particular geographic area, or at a particular time.

Network sharing can have many benefits but is not without risks, which can include: reduction in competitive intensity; potential for collusive dealing and information sharing; and reduced options for services-based competitors.

IoT

The mobile industry association GSMA predicts between 1 – 2 billion M2M connections by 2020. Some experts believe that the market for IoT devices will grow exponentially, resulting in over USD 1.7 trillion in value added to the global economy by 2019.

The simplest IoT technology — passive RFID tagging — is already widespread in retail, transit ticketing and access control.

Near-Field Communication (NFC) is now included in newer smart phones, enabling applications such as contactless payments.

More complex M2M systems can send information over cellular networks. Examples include electricity metre readings sent to energy companies and car airbag deployment notifications sent to emergency services. Literally hundreds of millions of M2M systems are being deployed around the world.

IoT technical standards have evolved from a variety of different applications and stakeholders with different aims and requirements, and more work is needed to integrate different standards frameworks. A uniform network of “things” is unlikely to develop in the medium term. Smart meters are unlikely to communicate directly with heart-rate monitors, or recipe planners. Some networks will use public infrastructure, others will be entirely private. Some applications will have high bandwidth and interactivity requirements (such as video surveillance), others may focus on transferring short bursts of information (such as smart meters).

For IoT to become a truly ubiquitous technology, the cost of tags, sensors and communication systems need to fall to a level where they are a very small fraction of the total costs of the objects to which they are attached, with readers also made easily available. Even the cheapest (printed) tags, known as Quick Response (QR) codes, have not yet generated high responses in consumer-targeted marketing campaigns.

High reliability levels also become important in large-scale systems that can include thousands of sensors, devices and readers.

Without adequate security, intruders can break into IoT systems and networks, accessing potentially sensitive personal information about users and using vulnerable devices to attack local networks and other devices. IoT system operators and others with authorized access are also in a position to “collect, analyse, and act upon copious amounts of data from within traditionally private spaces.”

A further privacy issue relates to the amount of personal information that can be derived from seemingly innocuous sensor data, especially when it is combined with user profiles and data from other sources.

Interoperability

The concept of ‘interoperability’ is much broader than just technical compatibility, with implications across all four key levels – technological, data, human and institutional.
Systems can increase interoperability by:

– providing greater opportunities for technical interconnection;
– being more open about the types of systems and services that can interconnect;
– supporting a greater variety of data; and by
– making it easier for humans to leverage the interconnections.

Interop can also increase opportunities to exploit the system. A system that has more points of access allows (1) more types of systems to connect, (2) processes data with fewer limitations (3) increases potential attack vectors and (4) creates more opportunities for nefarious actors to exploit data or to inject bad code.

Increased levels of interoperability tend to enhance user choice and autonomy.

Interoperability is not an end in itself, and doesn’t always have to be maximized. Instead, private actors and regulators must work carefully to optimize the level of interop necessary to meet their objectives.

Interop challenges include:

– increased complexity of interoperable systems, which may lead to decreased reliability, with downstream systems increasing reliant on upstream systems
– Increased homogeneity and less market diversity
– Decreased privacy because of a rising number of individuals with access to one’s personal information
– Threats to business models – as higher levels of interop are distributed unequally across a market. Some businesses may have a vested interest in maintaining lower levels of interop, allowing them to benefit from customer lock-in.

The Middle East and Africa (MEA) PC market suffered a 28.7% year-on-year slump in shipments in the final quarter of 2015, according to the latest insights from global technology research and consulting firm International Data Corporation (IDC).

Shipments fell for the third consecutive quarter in Q4 2015, with the decline representing the steepest ever recorded in the region for a single quarter.

In a shift from earlier quarters in the year when the decline in desktop shipments was notably less pronounced than the decline in notebooks, this time round both product categories declined at a similar pace.

Indeed, IDC’s Quarterly PC Tracker shows that desktop shipments declined 29.4% year on year in Q4 2015 to total 1.3 million units, with notebook shipments falling 28.2% over the same period to total 1.9 million units.

“Similar to the previous quarter, Turkey, the ‘Rest of the Middle East’ grouping (Iran, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Afghanistan, and Palestine), Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan experienced the sharpest declines within MEA,” says Fouad Charakla, Senior Research Manager for personal computing, systems, and infrastructure solutions at IDC Middle East, Africa, and Turkey.

“The reasons for these declines varied from country to country, but included high levels political and economic instability and uncertainty, low oil prices, increasing security concerns, and volatile currency fluctuations, especially with the U.S. dollar becoming more expensive.”

Once again, the top three vendors remained unchanged in Q4 2015. The continued focus of these vendors on the commercial segment has contributed significantly to their ability to remain at the top of the rankings, since they combined to serve almost 70% of the region’s commercial PC demand during the quarter.

Overall, HP maintained the top spot in terms of market share, despite experiencing a fall of 27.4% year on year, while second-placed Lenovo suffered a decline of 29.9% on shipments. Dell, on the other hand, escaped with a mild decline of 8.7% year on year as the vendor had experienced a relatively slow quarter during the same period last year.

Declining slightly slower than the overall market at 23.2% year on year, Asus overtook Acer to claim fourth position, while Acer experienced the fastest decline among the top vendors at 42.9% year on year.

Similar to previous quarters, the local assembly of desktops continues to slow as a growing portion of end users opt for refurbished PCs, upgrades, or to prolong their refreshment cycle altogether as they increasingly shift their usage towards mobile phones and tablets.

“As market sentiment remains low, IDC expects to see a delay in the recovery of PC demand,” says Charakla.

“Overall, 2016 will experience a further decline on 2015, as growth is only expected to occur in the second half of the year. A slightly stronger recovery is expected during 2017, after which the region will continue to experience a period of slow growth over the longer term. As the growing popularity of smartphones and tablets will continue to inhibit demand for PCs, vendors and channels across the region are expected to plan and order cautiously so as to avoid being left with high inventory levels.”

Similar to IDC’s previous forecasts, there will continue to be a gradual shift in the weight of demand from consumers to the commercial segment as a growing proportion of home users switch from PCs to tablets and smartphones while commercial end users maintain a greater loyalty to PCs.

As a result, commercial demand for PCs in the region is expected to surpass that stemming from home users by the year 2017.

Engr. Shola Taylor, Secretary-General of the Commonwealth Telecommunications Organisation (CTO), has announced that working with member countries on making cyberspace safer and resilient is a top priority for the London-based organisation over the next four years.

In his opening address at the annual Commonwealth Cyber-security Forum 2016 which took place on 23 – 24 March in London, Taylor made it clear that while “the open, decentralised nature of cyberspace has empowered individuals, fostered innovation and driven development, it also presents dangers for its users.

“Cyberspace can be used for criminal activities by targeting individuals through identity fraud, targeting the vulnerable through child exploitation, targeting communities through extremism and even targeting whole countries – the experiences of Estonia in 2007 being one example.

“This year’s event is our opportunity to understand new forms of cyber threats and cybercrime and learn about new and effective ways to mitigate or eradicate them, particularly through international cooperation. With this in mind, I am pleased to announce here today that our Council has just approved our 2016 – 2020 strategic plan which makes cyber-security one of our top priorities”, Taylor announced.

The organisation, which convenes the annual event, is already working with a number of Commonwealth countries such Botswana, Cameroon, Fiji and Uganda to help develop their national cyber-security strategies, and the challenges and outcomes of this ongoing work are being presented at the London event.

Key issues addressed at the conference include:
· Economic growth and innovation in cyberspace;
· Legislative frameworks;
· Data privacy and security risks;
· Defending and protecting critical information infrastructure, including space communication infrastructure;
· International cooperation, including capacity and trust building;
· Combating cyber-terrorism.

Speaking about cyber-terrorism, Sir Malcolm Rifkind, former UK Foreign Secretary and former Chairman, Intelligence and Security Committee of the UK Parliament said that “Cyber-security is the challenge of our time. We are conscious of threats to our lives and to our well-being from international terrorism. These same terrorists are very vulnerable and if we ensure that our law enforcement and intelligence agencies are encouraged to give priority to dealing with cyber attacks from the evil people in our midst, then the very technology terrorists use, we can use against them and ultimately defeat them.”

“The CTO’s work in the area of cyber-security is important not only in providing direction, but also in knowledge sharing and practical advice.” commented Reginald Bourne, Chief Telecommunications Officer, Barbados.

Private-sector companies taking part in the event include host BT, ICANN, Huawei, Survine, Trend Micro, and Hewlett-Packard.

“I don’t foresee any let up in the cyber threat surface, and so the CTO’s Cyber-security Conference is crucial. It is able both to raise awareness of the threats to cyberspace, and how to tackle them, but also to enable delegates to take this awareness home and influence policy, technical architecture and capacity building.” said Les Anderson, Vice-President of Cyber, BT Security
Speaking on the importance of this year’s conference, Nigel Hickson, ICANN’s Vice-President for UN and IGO Engagement said that “ICANN is delighted and honoured to work with the CTO on this important annual event in the internet governance and cyber-security agenda. It was an excellent opportunity to discuss important developments, not least the recent historic agreements reached on the transfer of key technical internet governance functions from the US to the global internet community.”

“At Huawei we believe that collaboration is crucial to securing networks and devices in this increasingly connected world. And organisations need to build cyber-security in from the start, rather than bolting it on as an afterthought. CTO does a great job of bringing together both the public and private sectors across a great number of countries, creating thought-provoking debates and discussions on the cyber-security challenges the industry is currently facing.” said David Francis, Huawei’s European Chief Cyber-security Officer.

“Interacting with people from different horizons makes us realise how global cyber-security threats are and how important trust is in converging our effort to combat cybercrime”, said Honourable Vipuakuje Muharukua, Member of the Namibian Parliament.

About the Commonwealth Telecommunications Organisation
The Commonwealth Telecommunications Organisation (CTO) is the oldest and largest Commonwealth intergovernmental organisation in the field of information and communication technologies.
Although our history can be traced back to 1901 with the establishment of the Pacific Cable Board, the organisation has only existed in its present form as an intergovernmental treaty organisation since 1967. With a diverse membership spanning developed and least developed countries, small island developing states, and more recently also the private sector and civil society, the CTO aims to become a trusted partner for sustainable development for all through ICTs.