Total deal volumes and values of Merger & Acquisition (M&A) transactions in Africa fell sharply in the first half of 2018, declining 44% in deal volume and 57% in aggregate value, compared to the first half of 2017. This is according to analysis by Baker McKenzie of Thomson Reuters  M &A data for Africa.

The report notes that there were 485 deals valued at USD 19, 420 million in the first half of 2017, this dropped to 270 deals valued at USD 8,318 million in H1 2018.

On a positive note, intraregional cross-border deals rose twofold in terms of aggregate value from USD 418 million in the first half of 2017 to USD 1,292 million in H1 2018.
Morne van der Merwe, Managing Partner and Head of the Corporate/M&A Practice at Baker McKenzie in Johannesburg explains: “Africa is a continent with 54 different countries, all with different economies and so it is difficult to pin down specifically what has caused the downturn in M&A activity in the first half of the year. Generally, inbound investment in Africa has been affected by political uncertainty and unpredictability – business does not mind challenge but has no affinity for uncertainty. Corruption and bad governance, as well as the strict anti-bribery and anti-corruption laws in some investor countries, such as the United States and the United Kingdom have made investors more cautious.”

Intra-regional Trade
“Despite the downturn in M&A transactions, it appears that regional economies are developing and intraregional trade is doing well. East Africa is developing a strong regional focus and had almost left the Southern African region behind, although this region has come back onto the radar of late,” van der Merwe notes.
Van der Merwe explains further that certain economies such as Ethiopia are becoming more of a discussion point as popular investor destinations in Africa because of interesting development initiatives taking place in this country.
The majority of the intraregional deals in Africa were in the High Technology Sector (cutting edge or advanced technology) which accounted for 21% of all deals. Interregional deal making value was highest in the financial sector which made up 82% of the total value. There were four High Technology intraregional deals in Africa in the first half of 2018. Intraregional deals in the financial sector in H1 2018 were worth USD 1,056 million.
Van der Merwe says that the financial services sector, especially banks and insurance companies have been deploying various models for their expansion into Africa, including regionally focused strategies.
“Lessons I have picked up from these markets include that having the right local partner remains key to being successful in Africa and that it is important it to think twice before you impose your brand on a market where you have recently made an acquisition. This is because you may change the recently acquired company from what had made it successful in the first place. Keeping the local brand and management in place has worked very well for some in the financial services sector who have expanded into Africa,” he notes.
Van der Merwe explains that events such as Barclays withdrawing from Africa had left many wondering how a financial giant like Absa would rethink its strategy and possible expansion into Africa, and it will be interesting to follow the unfolding of their strategy to position themselves as an African Bank.
“I think that expanding into the continent and having a regional approach as part of that expansion is something they are most likely thinking about very carefully,” he says
He notes that the growth in investment in both the financial services sector and the technology sector in Africa are interlinked. Financial services organisations are becoming more dependent on investment in technology and innovation as they look to upgrade their IT systems and find news way to grow their customer bases.

Inbound
In terms of inbound cross-border transactions with other regions, Industrials was the most popular by deal volume (16% share of the total) with 16 deals completed in the first half of the year. Energy & Power attracted the highest share of aggregate deal value (35% of the total value), with deals valued at USD 1,493 million.
“The industrials sector is a focus area for many developing economies across the continent and the sector is well established, leading to many more opportunities than one would find in less well established sectors,” he says.
Van der Merwe explains that the extent of the power deficit in Africa is well known and increasing electricity generation, whether on-grid or off-grid, across the continent is the focus of a number of initiatives, all of which are driving investment.
In terms of foreign investors, the United States (US) was the most acquisitive in Africa, representing 18% of deal volume and 39% of deal value. The US completed 18 deals in Africa in H1 2018, worth USD 1,694 million.
“The US has been a significant investor in the African continent for some time. Trump’s policies have played out well for certain countries in Africa and the relationship between the US and Africa is very much focused on strategic bilateral relationships influencing the direction of investment flow,” he notes.

Outbound
In terms of outbound deals, High Technology had the highest volume of outbound interregional cross-border deals (13% of total deals). There were eight outbound deals in the High Technology sector in the first half of the year. Real Estate accounted for the highest share in aggregate value at 27% of total value of outbound deals. This sector completed USD 430 million worth of deals in H1 2018.
“The high number of outbound technology deals from Africa is because African tech companies are targeting offshore investments in companies that will deepen their access to new technologies, markets and talent,” he says.

The real estate sector attains prominence because of relative value of real estate as an asset class.

“As economies develop, so does real the estate sector. For example, the expanding middle class and consumerism in Africa has led to a growth in the consumer goods sector and real estate development is part of that as new shopping centres are developed. Also, African infrastructure development is high on the agenda across the continent and there is a big real estate element associated with that as well,” he explains.

The UK had the highest number of investors from Africa during the period H1 2018 (20% share), with 12 deals being completed in the first half of the year. India was the most attractive market in terms of value (46% of total value). African dealmakers completed transactions worth USD 735 million in India in H1 2018.
“The ease of doing business with the UK brought about by various factors, including, time zones, easy access, language, historical ties and familiarity has meant that investment between the UK and numerous African countries has always been good. Brexit has impacted positively on investment in that it has caused UK trade outreach initiatives to various historic trade partners,” van der Merwe explains.
.“With regards to India being a popular investment destination for African businesses to invest, this is because like Africa, India is a developing economy. African investors are astute in seeking out opportunities in these economies because the environment and challenges are often similar, or at least comparable. This makes it easier to build a relationship with local partners, which is so necessary for successful investment. India is also a very large economy and so huge opportunities can be accessed for investors who know where to look. In addition, historical ties between India and many countries in Africa adds to the familiarity and relative ease of doing business,” he adds.

Africa’s hotel sector has the potential for further growth over the next five years. An increase in the number of foreign and domestic travellers, as well as an expansion in a number of hotel chains on the continent reinforces the hotel sector’s untapped potential for business growth.
These are some of the highlights from a report issued yesterday by PwC on Africa’s hotel sector.
PwC’s eighth edition of the Hotels outlook: 2018-2022 includes information about hotel accommodation in South Africa, Nigeria, Mauritius, Kenya and Tanzania.

The report projects that hotel room revenue for the five markets as a group will increase at a 7.4% compound annual rate to R50.5 billion in 2022 from R35.2 billion in 2017.
Pietro Calicchio, Hospitality Industry Leader, PwC Southern Africa, says: “Tourism to the African continent has proven to be resilient in the face of economic and political uncertainty, impacts of droughts and other regulatory changes. The opportunities are aplenty for this industry to enjoy further growth albeit at a more modest pace. However, as we continue to see there are also a number of challenges facing each country. This is an industry that is reactive to the smallest change in political, regulatory, safety and sustainability matters.”
South African hotel room revenue is expected to expand to R21.8 billion in 2022, up 5.6%, compounded annually, from R16.6 billion in 2017.

The growth in hotel rooms in South Africa, remains similar to that forecast in our 2017 Hotels Outlook with an additional 2 900 rooms to be added over the next five years. We also forecast occupancy rates to continue to grow over the forecast period and to reach 62.5% in 2022.
International visitor numbers to South Africa continued to grow with a 2.4% increase overall. The outlook for 2018 remains positive albeit at lower percentages than experienced in 2016. The report projects that the number of foreign visitors and domestic tourism will increase by 5.3% in 2018. The total number of travellers in South Africa is expected to reach 19.5 million by 2022, a 4% compound annual increase from 16 million in 2017. “There is also continued debate on further relaxation of visa requirements for international visitors and this may impact on our forecast growth,” Calicchio comments.
After jumping 38% in 2016, visitors from China to South Africa fell 17% in 2017. Travellers from India rose a modest 2.7% in 2017, well below the 21.7% increase recorded in 2016. Of non-African countries the UK is still the largest source of visitors to South Africa at 447 901 in 2017, contributing to the overall growth of 7.2% in visitors from non-African countries in 2017. Of African visitors, the largest number came from Zimbabwe at 2 million, followed by Lesotho at 1.8 million and Mozambique at 1.3 million.
While the fundamentals affecting tourism to South Africa remain favourable, helped by an improving global and local economy, it is impacted by other factors like the water shortage in Cape Town.

As there is little historical precedence, it is difficult to project the impact of the drought on tourism. Although bookings were down in Cape Town, overall tourism to South Africa held up during the festive season and actually picked up in the first quarter of 2018.

Hotels in Cape Town are taking a number of steps to conserve water. If the winter rainfall continues at the current rate, the crisis may be limited in scope.
Nigeria is expected to be the fastest-growing country over the next five years. A number of new hotels are scheduled to be opened during this time. Continued improvement in the domestic economy will also lead to faster growth in guest nights.
Kenya, Tanzania and Mauritius should be the next fastest growing, with compound annual increases of 9.6%, 9.1% and 7.2%, respectively. South Africa is projected to be the slowest growing market with a 5.6% compound annual increase in room revenue.
Overall, hotel room revenue in South Africa rose 4.6% to R16.6 billion in 2017. Five-star hotels had the highest occupancy rates in the market in 2017, at 79.5%. While the average daily rate (ADR) growth for five-star hotels slowed in 2017 (R2,6 million), as it did for the market as a whole, the 8.8% increase was still well above the increase for three- and four-star hotels, reflecting the impact of the high occupancy rate for five-star hotels.
With a number of four-star hotels opening in 2017, available rooms increased 1.8%, the first rise since 2013. Most of the hotel openings scheduled for the coming years will be four-star hotels, leading to a projected 2.4% compound annual increase in available four-star rooms over the next five years – 76% of the total increase in available rooms for all hotels in South Africa. Three-star hotels accounted for 31% of total hotel room revenue in 2017.
The hotel markets in Nigeria and Mauritius continued to perform well in 2017 with both achieving double-digit growth whereas Kenya and Tanzania had decreases in room revenue. For the forecast period as a whole, the number of available rooms in Nigeria will rise from 9 700 in 2017 to 12 600 in 2022, a 5.4% compound annual increase – still the largest expansion of any country in the report.
Hotel room revenue in Mauritius increased by 12.7% in 2017 and the country continues to experience growth in the number of foreign visitors. Hotel room revenue is projected to grow at a 7.2% compound annual rate to 2022.
Kenya experienced a drop in visitors following the national elections in August 2017 but recovery was already seen in December with an increase in visitor numbers resulting in 9.9% overall growth. However, this was not enough to boost overall room revenue, which showed a 13.5% decline in 2017. Going forward, tourism in Kenya is expected to increase at a 6.9% compound annual rate, rising to 2.06 million in 2022 from 1.47 million in 2017.
Tanzania’s hotel room revenue amounted to US$206 million in 2017, a decline of 5.5% over 2016 due to a drop in guest nights. However, we expect guest nights to grow in 2018 and forecast revenue growth of 10.2% for 2018.
The hotels and tourism sectors in each of the countries in our report are all showing signs of continued growth over the forecast period. Tourism remains an important part of each economy. However, the smallest change or disruption can have a fundamental impact on the future growth of each market. “It is therefore important that investors, hotel operators, tourism bodies and governments continue to work together to grow this important industry and ensure its sustainability so that all stakeholders derive the maximum benefit from it,” Calicchio concludes.

As part of its contribution towards building a financially savvy generation, The Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) is partnering with Kinabuti, to empower young people with entrepreneurial skills and financial literacy leveraging its Dare To Dream initiative across university campuses in Nigeria.

The partnership will see NSE engage with about 25,000 undergraduates expected to be reached during the 2018 edition of the Dare to Dream activation by giving them a financial literacy talk, educating them about the various offerings available in the capital market and conducting trivia quiz to test understanding of the learning from the various talks.

A stock broker will be on ground to assist interested youths who want to open a brokerage account and begin to invest for the future.

Also, the state champions of the programme that will proceed to the boot camp will have the opportunity of visiting the Nigerian bourse and have an experience of the trading floor as well as meet with brokers to better understand how trading is done.

NSE officials will further participate in the programme by featuring as judges in selecting the winners of the Dare to Dream project at the grand finale.

Prior to NSE’s participation in the Dare2dream project, the platform empowers Nigerian youths by developing talents and skills in fashion and entertainment related industries. With this sponsorship, the participants will have an opportunity to learn more about finance and enhance the potential for participation and job opportunities in the capital market. 

Speaking on the initiative, Olumide Orojimi, Head, Corporate Communications stated: “Only a highly financially literate population can take advantage of suitable financial products and services to achieve sustainable financial well-being. This partnership complements our various financial literacy programmes aimed at building a highly financial literate population that is competent to, or confident in choosing and utilising financial products and services to raise their welfare. With about 65% of the Nigerian population as youths, we have carefully chosen this partnership to help raise the financial literacy level of our future leaders.”

Also commenting, Francesca Rosset, Co-Founder of Kinabuti the Producer of Dare2Dream said:

“We are excited to welcome NSE on board season 5 of the Dare2Dream initiative. The partnership is key to promote financial literacy amongst the youths, an essential for building an inclusive economy in Nigeria. In addition to the great learnings we have in store for the youths, their being able to better understand the capital market and investment from NSE will play a huge role in preparing them for their future.”

About The Dare2Dream

The Dare2Dream initiative, now in its 5^th year, is a programme through which Kinabuti empowers young people looking to start careers in the creative arts space, specifically, models, dancers, musicians and presenters.

Delivered in the form of a reality show, it comes in three phases starting with campus activations to create awareness and select the top creative minds; thereafter, a boot camp is held to provide essential training for the participants and to trim down their number by way of eliminations; lastly, a grand finale event is held to showcase the identified talents and to announce winners.

BudgIT decries the masking and insertion of several opaque items with little or no bearing on the economy by the National Assembly.

A recent analysis by BudgIT shows that approximately 6, 529 new projects valued at N579.08bn was inserted into the 2018 budget by the National Assembly.

Out of the 6529 new projects entered into the budget, 90.6% or 5918 items have a unit value below N200m. Also, the projects cannot be directly linked to the written, medium-term aspirations of the government as highlighted in the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan.

An analysis of the inserted projects shows that N63.64 billion or approximately 11% of the new projects added by the National Assembly will be spent on various training and capacity building programmes in 2018.

Given that the budget will be largely funded by borrowings (as highlighted in the 2018 fiscal plan), it is disheartening to discover that most of the identified line items therein show a significant disconnect from the developmental goals of government, as stated in its Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP).

‘We are alarmed at the number of micro-projects added by the National Assembly that may not fall within the core scope of the Federal Government.

We also noticed that the new projects inserted into the budget are fragmented, and budget line items are accompanied with vague descriptions that will prove difficult to monitor or track in physical and auditing terms. It is equally essential for the National assembly to explain the rationale behind the increased allocations to itself as such cannot be justified given the abysmal distribution to the education and health sector, considering that National Assembly increased its budgetary allocation from N125 billion to N139.5 billion.

We also observed that projects valued at N13.16 billion were cancelled altogether without detailed explanation by the national assembly. Some of the critical projects removed from the 2018 budget included  N200.3 million meant to settle arrears under the national telephony programme, N100 million allocated for the Establishment of an ICT university and the N1.2 billion allocated under the proposed budget for the construction of the  Zauro polder irrigation project.  Equally shocking is the fact that allocation to over 4,621 projects were reduced by approximately N318.89 billion without citations.’

BudgIT welcomes the addition of N55.15 billion to the health sector under the National Health Act. While the amount falls short of the 1% consolidated revenue fund (above N70bn), we see the allocation as the critical starting point and urge Nigerians and critical stakeholders to monitor its implementation.

‘Overall, we believe that the 2018 budget will need proper interrogation from all stakeholders. It is also essential for the National Assembly and Executive to significantly reduce the administrative component of the budget and direct funds towards improving education, health and other critical infrastructure. We also believe that there will be a more in-depth interrogation of the extent of the powers of the National Assembly and how such powers are exercised with great responsibility.’

About BudgIT

BudgIT is a civic organisation that applies technology to intersect citizen engagement with institutional improvement, to facilitate societal change. A pioneer in the field of social advocacy melded with technology, BudgIT uses an array of tech tools to simplify the budget and matters of public spending for citizens, with the primary aim of raising the standard of transparency and accountability in government.