In September 2025, businesses in Nigeria sustained a positive trajectory, with the Current Business Performance remaining in the expansion region since December 2024.
The NESG–Stanbic IBTC Business Confidence Monitor (BCM) reported a marginal rise to 107.9 points, up from 107.3 in August 2025. This improvement reflects a combination of sectoral dynamics, notably a rebound in Agriculture, supported by the harvest season, and steady activity in the Services sector.
A sectoral review confirmed that all five broader economic activities stayed in the expansion zone. Agriculture posted the strongest recovery, rising sharply to 107.3 from a contractionary
95.6 in August, while Non-manufacturing (114.5), Trade (107.6), and Manufacturing (102.5) all expanded, albeit at a slower pace compared to August.
Key BCM sub-indices, such as investment, exports, access to credit, and prices, registered marginal gains relative to August 2025, pointing to improving sentiment in capital formation and external trade. Importantly, recent improvements in cost of doing business and input prices suggest a gradual moderation of inflationary pressures on firms. However, this positive trend remains fragile, as financing constraints, erratic electricity supply, high commercial property costs, unclear policy signals, and persistent insecurity continue to undermine business confidence and investment appetite.
Comment from Stanbic IBTC
The current business performance of Nigerian businesses improved slightly in September relative to August, buoyed by both the Agriculture sector and Services, both of which neutralised the modest activity softening in Manufacturing, Non-manufacturing, and Trade sectors.
A breakdown of the components of the current business performance shows an improvement in the general business situation, a higher level of demand, improved employment conditions and greater access to credit relative to the prior month.
Besides, the cost of doing business has declined for the third consecutive month, while the price index has remained below the 100 index points psychological threshold since November 2024, implying underlying price pressures as moderating.
This is not surprising as fuel cost and exchange rate pressures, which negatively impacted prices in 2024, have seen limited price movements so far in 2025. Notably, the exchange rate appreciated by 5.5% year-to-date (as of 2nd October) relative to 40.9% depreciation in 2024 and fuel cost declined by 13.8% in 7m:25 relative to 77.0% price increase in 2024.
We estimate that the oil and non-oil sectors may have grown by 14.3% y/y and 4.4% y/y, respectively, translating into overall GDP growth of 4.5% y/y in Q3:25. We now lift our 2025 growth forecast to 4.0% y/y, from 3.5% y/y, after fully accounting for the impact of GDP rebasing, and after surprisingly good Q2:25 GDP growth.
Going into 2026, the non-oil sector’s growth should remain strong amid a likely reduction in interest rates and low inflation, both of which should support aggregate demand and private investment. Further, a likely less exchange rate volatility in 2025 and 2026 based on our current estimates should support growth across trade, manufacturing, real estate, and construction. Aside from that, the forward-linkage impact of Dangote Refinery should benefit manufacturing growth in the medium term.
The IMF expects the Dangote Refinery to increase non-oil GDP growth by c.1.5% in 2026. Oil refining has already grown for a third consecutive quarter, to 15.78% y/y in Q2:25, from 11.51% y/y in Q1:25, although its contribution to the manufacturing sector remains insignificant, at 0.1%.”
