In August 2025, businesses in Nigeria sustained a positive trajectory, with the index staying in the expansion zone since the start of the year.
The NESG–Stanbic IBTC Business Confidence Monitor reported a slight rise in the Current Business Index to 107.3 points, up from 105.4 points in July 2025. This recovery was driven by stronger performance in technology, finance, manufacturing, energy, and logistics, supported by targeted investments and ongoing reforms.
However, these gains were tempered by structural bottlenecks affecting operational efficiency and business profitability. Apart from the contraction in Agriculture, the sectoral review showed improvements across industries and broader economic activities.
Trade posted the strongest rebound after the previous month’s decline. Meanwhile, Manufacturing (106.2), Non-manufacturing (116.2), Trade (114.1), and Services (103.7) all advanced in August compared to July 2025. Conversely, Agriculture slipped into contraction territory, recording 95.6 index points. Key sub-indices of the BCM, including investment, exports, access to credit, and prices, registered lower values relative to July 2025. The cost of doing business also rose in August, reversing the marginal relief of the previous month. Additionally, input prices continued to worsen during the period. Major constraints restricting growth and performance in August 2025 were limited financing access, unclear economic policies, unreliable electricity supply, high lease and rental costs, and persistent insecurity.
Comment from Stanbic IBTC
Business conditions in Nigeria improved in August relative to July as growth seen across the Manufacturing, Non-manufacturing, Services, and Trade sectors were enough to neutralize the contraction witnessed by the Agricultural sector in the month.
Within Agriculture, crop production recorded the most significant decline, likely seasonal in nature, as August is the lean season based on Nigeria’s agricultural calendar, ahead of the main harvest season starting in September.
Hence, the Agricultural sector output may increase in September and October, likely due to higher output associated with the harvest season.
Meanwhile, the Manufacturing sector rebounded in August after the contraction witnessed in July, supported by the Food, Beverage and Tobacco; Textile, Apparel and Footwear; Wood and Wood Products; and Pulp, Paper and Paper Products sub-sectors.
Services (103.7 points vs July: 101.9 points) also remained within the expansionary territory for the sixth consecutive month, supported by the ongoing improvement in FX liquidity conditions, softer price pressures, and relative stability of the domestic currency.
Nigeria’s rebased economy shows real GDP increasing by 3.13% y/y in Q1:25 – slower than the 3.76% y/y revised growth in Q4:24 – and also the lowest since Q1:24 when the economy grew by 2.27% y/y. At 78.6%, relative to 70.0% in Q4:24, services contributed the most to GDP growth in Q1:25, but agriculture shrank to 0.5% in Q1:25, from 19.7% in Q4:24.
Industries in Q1:25 contributed an impressive 20.9%, from 10.4% in Q4:24, in line with our long-held view that industries should start contributing more to real GDP growth from 2025 amid the structural shift introduced into the sector by the operations of Dangote Refinery.
Overall, the Nigerian economy is still on track to grow by 3.5% y/y in 2025 from 3.4% y/y growth seen in 2024 supported by softer inflation, improvement in FX liquidity conditions, and structural reforms.
